Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:45:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E8 0xe851…fbea other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 18d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$255 (+45%) realized +$212 · open +$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$328now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$222
14 days+$209
30 days+$209
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% +$104
sports 22% +$145
crypto 4% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +44.2% +30.4% 67% 67% +72.6%
≤30d 7 +23.6% +11.8% 57% 57% +63.7%
≤90d 7 +23.6% +11.8% 57% 57% +63.7%
all 7 +23.6% +11.8% 57% 57% +63.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.8% 57% +63.7%
10% +1.1% 43% +48.0%
15% -8.7% 43% +33.7%
20% -17.6% 43% +20.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +81% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +81% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$12 · ×5.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.74 per $1 lost it wins $6.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$328
Realized+$212
Unrealized+$43
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions8
Markets (closed)7 / 15
History coverage18d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 94¢ $105 $147 +$42 (+40%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $40 $49 +$9 (+23%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $40 $33 −$7 (-17%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+37%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+15%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-30%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $29 +$43 +152%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$41 +80%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $27 −$3 -11%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $21 +$3 +13%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $111 +$159 +142%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 10 $14 −$13 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $72 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $29 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $50 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 79¢ $41 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 4¢ $23 6d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $27 6d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $106 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $23 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $149 6d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 BUY Yes 49¢ $14 10d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 10d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 10d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 10d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 10d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $41 10d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $41 10d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 78¢ $121 13d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 36¢ $111 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $328.07 · official $327.92 (match) · 32 history records