Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:24:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5.5
score
E8 0xe84e…b520 sports 108 markets active 2h ago coverage 29d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3,724 (+98%) realized +$3,727 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +56% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip
Net edge+36%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%49W / 58L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$62est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$189
7 days+$646
14 days+$3,110
30 days+$3,586
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$3,442
other 25% +$283
crypto 3% −$123
world 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+41.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +42.1% +28.6% 39% 39% +37.7%
≤30d 107 +56.2% +41.3% 46% 45% +76.9%
≤90d 107 +56.2% +41.3% 46% 45% +76.9%
all 107 +56.2% +41.3% 46% 45% +76.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +41.3% 45% +76.9%
10% +27.8% 44% +60.0%
15% +15.4% 43% +44.5%
20% +4.1% 36% +30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +96% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +56% · $-wt +96% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +81% → late +32% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$97 vs −$20 · ×4.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.12 per $1 lost it wins $4.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized+$3,727
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses49 / 58
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions2
Markets (closed)107 / 108
History coverage29d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-15%)
Will Jacob Bridgeman win the 2026 TOUR Championship? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $41 +$76 +184%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $103 −$100 -97%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 23 $10 +$2 +20%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 23 $10 +$3 +32%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Fiona Crawley vs Himeno Sakatsume Jun 23 $21 +$55 +268%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -96%
Bad Homburg Open: Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $21 +$55 +267%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 21 $21 +$131 +634%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $41 +$66 +160%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -96%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -96%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $52 +$398 +767%
Moisés Ramírez: 3+ saves Jun 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $21 +$89 +431%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $205 +$242 +118%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Veronika Erj Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -96%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 20 $47 −$47 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $21 +$66 +321%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $102 +$51 +50%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Carole Monnet Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $5 +$21 +409%
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Alina Charaeva Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Ekaterine Gorgodze Jun 17 $5 +$20 +384%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Sachia Vickery Jun 17 $5 +$2 +47%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$14 +135%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "UFC" 3+ times during UFC 250? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$16 +78%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 +$14 +70%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $20 +$78 +378%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $92 +$35 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 89¢ $117 1h
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 30¢ $41 3h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $103 3h
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 3h
Portugal to win the second half? SELL Yes 93¢ $12 3h
Portugal leading at halftime? SELL Yes 94¢ $13 5h
Portugal to win the second half? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 7h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 7h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Fiona Crawley vs Himeno Sakatsume SELL Fiona Crawley 100¢ $76 8h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $21 13h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 13h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Fiona Crawley vs Himeno Sakatsume BUY Fiona Crawley 26¢ $21 13h
Bad Homburg Open: Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Ann Li 42¢ $21 17h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $21 24h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 81¢ $76 46h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 23¢ $21 47h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 100¢ $152 47h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $107 47h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $41 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 13¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes $21 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 2d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 39¢ $21 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $450 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $52 2d
Moisés Ramírez: 3+ saves BUY Yes $1 3d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 100¢ $110 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $447 3d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 18¢ $21 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.12 · official $17.12 (match) · 215 history records