Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:42:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E8 0xe84e…7857 other 103 markets active 2h ago coverage 613d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$57 (-0%) realized −$58 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate90%92W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$510per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$57
politics 1% +$3
crypto 1% +$3
tech 0% +$1
world 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
sports 0% −$8
economics 0% +$2
weather 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 3 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 102 -1.5% -10.9% 90% 11% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 11% -9.6%
10% -19.4% 10% -18.3%
15% -27.2% 5% -26.2%
20% -34.3% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$12 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

613d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses92 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)102 / 103
History coverage613d
Avg bet$510
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? No 95¢ 96¢ $101 $102 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 23 $101 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April? May 24 $101 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of March? Apr 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in February? Mar 06 $15 $0 +1%
Will Netflix dip to $35 in February? Mar 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February? Mar 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft reach $593 in February? Mar 06 $18 $0 +0%
Will Tesla reach $600 in February? Mar 06 $18 $0 +0%
Will Palantir reach $219 in February? Mar 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft reach $608 in January? Feb 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will Netflix dip to $0 in January? Feb 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of January? Feb 14 $12 $0 +1%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 m Feb 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will Google dip to $215 in January? Feb 14 $18 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink dip to $6 in January? Feb 14 $18 $0 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $170 end of January? Feb 14 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash ra Jan 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: Nuclear Edition Jan 12 $16 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran in 2025? Jan 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? Jan 12 $20 $0 +0%
US forces in Iran in 2025? Jan 12 $25 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? Jan 12 $29 $0 +1%
Will Como 1907 win on 2025-12-15? Dec 20 $8 +$2 +32%
Will AS Roma vs. Como 1907 end in a draw? Dec 20 $8 +$3 +41%
Spread: AS Roma (-1.5) Dec 20 $10 +$2 +24%
Will AS Roma win on 2025-12-15? Dec 20 $8 +$9 +122%
AS Roma vs. Como 1907: O/U 1.5 Dec 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Will US Lecce win on 2025-12-07? Dec 12 $7 +$3 +39%
Will US Cremonese vs. US Lecce end in a draw? Dec 12 $7 +$3 +45%
US Cremonese vs. US Lecce: O/U 3.5 Dec 12 $13 +$2 +16%
Will Hellas Verona FC vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? Dec 12 $15 +$5 +30%
Hellas Verona FC vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 1.5 Dec 12 $16 +$5 +33%
Will US Cremonese win on 2025-12-07? Dec 12 $13 +$20 +150%
Spread: US Cremonese (-1.5) Dec 05 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Atalanta BC (-1.5) Dec 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2025-12-06? Dec 05 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-12-06? Dec 05 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in November? Dec 05 $30 $0 +1%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Dec 05 $125 $0 +0%
Will Victory win the most seats in the 2025 Moldova parliamentary elec Oct 14 $101 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 19 $117 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in July? Aug 10 $117 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in June? Jul 15 $110 +$1 +1%
Will Belgium be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? Jun 04 $107 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce an increase? May 07 $115 $0 +0%
Will Nicolae Ciucă win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Apr 06 $6 $0 +8%
Will Google be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 06 $108 $0 +0%
Will "Dune: Part Two" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 04 $108 $0 +0%
Global heat increase between 1.22°C and 1.24°C for 2024? Feb 15 $6 $0 +1%
Will Roderic O'Gorman be the next Prime Minister of Ireland? Feb 15 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 95¢ $101 1h
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $101 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $101 63d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $100 108d
Will Solana dip to $30 in February? BUY No 99¢ $15 129d
Will Tesla reach $600 in February? BUY No 100¢ $18 129d
Will Netflix dip to $35 in February? BUY No 100¢ $15 129d
Will Microsoft reach $593 in February? BUY No 100¢ $18 129d
Will Palantir reach $219 in February? BUY No 100¢ $20 129d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February? BUY No 100¢ $16 129d
Will Chainlink dip to $6 in January? BUY No 100¢ $18 162d
Will Google dip to $215 in January? BUY No 100¢ $18 162d
Will Netflix dip to $0 in January? BUY No 100¢ $10 162d
Will Microsoft reach $608 in January? BUY No 99¢ $10 162d
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $170 end of January? BUY Yes 100¢ $18 162d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of January? BUY No 99¢ $12 162d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $15 162d
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash ra BUY No 83¢ $6 162d
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $29 184d
Will the U.S. invade Iran in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $17 184d
Nothing Ever Happens: Nuclear Edition BUY Yes 99¢ $16 184d
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $20 184d
US forces in Iran in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $25 184d
Will Como 1907 win on 2025-12-15? BUY No 76¢ $8 192d
Will AS Roma vs. Como 1907 end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $8 192d
Will AS Roma win on 2025-12-15? BUY Yes 45¢ $8 192d
Spread: AS Roma (-1.5) BUY Como 1907 81¢ $10 192d
AS Roma vs. Como 1907: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $16 192d
Spread: US Cremonese (-1.5) BUY US Lecce 89¢ $8 200d
US Cremonese vs. US Lecce: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 86¢ $13 200d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.53 · official $101.53 (match) · 215 history records