Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:49:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe84c…5269 other 315 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$28 (+0%) realized +$50 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate35%108W / 204L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$164est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$203
7 days+$517
14 days+$304
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$180
sports 21% −$611
world 1% +$77
crypto 0% −$5
weather 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +53.0% +38.4% 33% 29% +27.8%
≤30d 100 +21.6% +10.0% 27% 24% -9.2%
≤90d 312 -4.5% -13.6% 35% 30% -10.3%
all 312 -4.5% -13.6% 35% 30% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 30% -10.3%
10% -21.9% 26% -18.9%
15% -29.4% 23% -26.7%
20% -36.4% 18% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$32 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$50
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses108 / 204
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$164
Open positions3
Markets (closed)312 / 315
History coverage76d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 312 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 9¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-99%)
Will RCA Zemamra win on 2026-06-21? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 101 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$7 -72%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $61 −$7 -12%
Will FathUnionSport vs. Olympic Dcheira end in a draw? Jun 21 $31 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $10 +$67 +650%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $10 −$5 -46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $189 +$172 +91%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $10 −$3 -33%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Londrina EC vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? Jun 20 $63 −$62 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $32 +$103 +325%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $11 +$54 +478%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $5 −$2 -31%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$8 -74%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $38 −$19 -51%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $15 −$11 -69%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $31 +$2 +7%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $39 +$18 +46%
SC Recife vs. AC Goianiense: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 18 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $10 +$156 +1519%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $17 −$17 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$4 -35%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in First H Jun 18 $31 −$19 -62%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $27 −$26 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 +$37 +72%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $26 −$2 -8%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $52 +$112 +216%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$4 -43%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$9 -88%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $27 −$24 -89%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $34 −$14 -40%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 +$54 +250%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $32 +$40 +126%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $27 +$40 +152%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$54 +1044%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +69%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $72 +$45 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 9¢ $6 1h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 33¢ $54 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $61 1h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Will RCA Zemamra win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 23¢ $16 2h
Will FathUnionSport vs. Olympic Dcheira end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $31 2h
Will FathUnionSport vs. Olympic Dcheira end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 9¢ $11 16h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 16h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 17h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 18h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $227 19h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $7 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 19h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 20h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 29¢ $134 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 34¢ $163 21h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 27¢ $26 23h
Will Londrina EC vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $63 27h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 23¢ $32 39h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 89¢ $65 39h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 39h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 40h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 15¢ $11 40h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 40h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 41h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $17 42h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.60 · official $0.57 (match) · 626 history records