Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:09:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe84c…be06 crypto 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$386 (-10%) realized −$395 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate38%10W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day53.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$70
sports 13% −$500
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-26.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -18.9% -26.6% 38% 31% -23.4%
≤30d 26 -18.9% -26.6% 38% 31% -23.4%
≤90d 26 -18.9% -26.6% 38% 31% -23.4%
all 26 -18.9% -26.6% 38% 31% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.6% 31% -23.4%
10% ← realistic here -33.6% 27% -30.7%
15% -40.1% 27% -37.4%
20% -45.9% 27% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$122 vs −$112 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized−$395
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses10 / 16
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage1d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day53.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Up 26¢ 56¢ $25 $54 +$29 (+117%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Down 32¢ 44¢ $25 $34 +$9 (+36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 24 $52 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 24 $410 +$222 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 24 $411 −$134 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 24 $207 +$178 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 24 $208 +$284 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 24 $238 −$225 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 23 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 23 $104 +$101 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 23 $320 −$300 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 23 $110 −$101 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 23 $310 +$254 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 23 $110 −$105 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 23 $112 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $52 −$7 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 23 $107 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 23 $209 −$209 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 23 $105 +$152 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 23 $100 +$6 +6%
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $511 −$500 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $27 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $200 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $210 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $207 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $204 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $207 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $208 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $212 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.30 · official $83.80 · 69 history records