Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:55:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe849…45c5 politics 185 markets active 2h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3,058 (-1%) realized −$3,059 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate21%39W / 145L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,444per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$220now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$22
14 days−$48
30 days−$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$142
other 31% +$243
sports 12% −$3,168
culture 5% −$14
world 5% −$24
economics 3% −$6
crypto 0% +$2
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 40 -1.8% -11.2% 10% 5% -9.7%
≤90d 114 -9.7% -18.3% 6% 3% -11.3%
all 184 -1.3% -10.7% 21% 7% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 7% -10.6%
10% -19.2% 7% -19.1%
15% -27.0% 7% -26.9%
20% -34.2% 5% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,760) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$28 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$220
Realized−$3,059
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses39 / 145
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)184 / 185
History coverage150d
Avg bet$1,444
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 184 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $219 $220 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 22 $1,746 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $217 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $221 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $762 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,199 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $2,234 −$3 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $4,099 −$6 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $1,406 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $2,812 −$5 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $1,344 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,198 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,135 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $4,377 −$6 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $3,076 −$5 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $2,967 −$4 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $3,781 −$4 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $1,611 −$3 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $2,679 −$4 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $4,096 −$5 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $6,043 −$7 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $2,954 −$4 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $4,944 −$6 -0%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 04 $81 −$81 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 03 $82 +$71 +86%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,435 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 02 $443 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $936 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $537 −$1 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $671 +$1 +0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $695 −$1 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 28 $708 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $1,616 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $1,382 −$2 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 26 $770 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,062 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $1,471 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 25 $2,110 −$3 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $1,138 −$2 -0%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $70 +$32 +46%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $818 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 23 $59 +$103 +172%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 23 $813 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 22 $716 −$1 -0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 22 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $849 −$1 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 21 $789 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $1,172 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $1,363 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 18 $1,447 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $434 1h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $434 4h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $217 26h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $217 28h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $221 3d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $221 3d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $761 4d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $762 4d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,197 4d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,199 5d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,173 5d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,175 5d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,385 5d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,388 5d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,404 6d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,406 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,207 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,209 6d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,343 7d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,344 7d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,193 7d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,195 7d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,196 8d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,198 8d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,133 9d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,135 9d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,413 10d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,415 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $220 11d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,533 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $219.98 · official $219.98 (match) · 618 history records