Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:08:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe848…6220 politics 153 markets active 1d ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,050 (-1%) realized −$2,050 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate19%29W / 123L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,648per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$263now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$24
14 days−$63
30 days−$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$187
politics 35% −$107
sports 14% −$1,750
economics 3% −$12
culture 1% −$4
world 1% −$35
crypto 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 43 +1.0% -8.6% 12% 7% -9.6%
≤90d 106 -11.9% -20.3% 7% 3% -10.6%
all 152 -5.2% -14.2% 19% 7% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 7% -10.3%
10% -22.5% 7% -18.9%
15% -29.9% 6% -26.7%
20% -36.8% 5% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,381) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$21 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$263
Realized−$2,050
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses29 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)152 / 153
History coverage130d
Avg bet$1,648
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 152 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $263 $263 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $1,400 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $834 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,036 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $4,098 −$5 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $3,887 −$5 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $3,637 −$4 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $2,381 −$3 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $906 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,044 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $3,717 −$5 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $3,713 −$5 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,523 −$3 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $2,068 −$3 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $1,318 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,314 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $3,943 −$4 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 07 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $2,173 −$3 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 04 $82 +$71 +86%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $6,137 −$7 -0%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 03 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,034 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $2,432 −$4 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $5,251 −$6 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $337 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? Jun 02 $456 +$1 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $1,623 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $6,770 −$7 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $1,415 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $1,959 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $1,640 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $2,017 −$3 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 26 $776 −$1 -0%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $72 +$65 +90%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $5,253 −$5 -0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $2,027 −$3 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $849 −$1 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 22 $690 −$1 -0%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $44 +$76 +172%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $1,390 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $3,007 −$3 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 18 $1,351 −$1 -0%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 18 $1,370 $0 +0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $3,437 −$4 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 17 $1,320 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $2,702 −$4 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $1,387 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $733 27h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $734 30h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $833 30h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $834 32h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,034 35h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,036 38h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,040 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,041 2d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,035 2d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,036 2d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,037 3d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,039 3d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,043 3d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,044 4d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $905 6d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $906 6d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,042 6d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,044 6d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,047 7d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,048 7d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,045 7d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,047 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $263 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,198 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,199 8d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,316 8d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,318 8d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,316 9d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,318 9d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,312 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $263.36 · official $263.36 (match) · 552 history records