Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:35:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe843…fd58 crypto 22 markets active 4d ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$510 (-77%) realized −$507 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate29%5W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$529
30 days−$529
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$517
other 4% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-56.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 17 -51.5% -56.1% 29% 18% -82.4%
≤90d 17 -51.5% -56.1% 29% 18% -82.4%
all 17 -51.5% -56.1% 29% 18% -82.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -56.1% 18% -82.4%
10% -60.3% 12% -84.1%
15% -64.2% 6% -85.7%
20% -67.7% 0% -87.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -81% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -52% · $-wt -81% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late -63% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$45 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$507
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses5 / 12
Open positions5
Markets (closed)17 / 22
History coverage104d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+29%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 10 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$8 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 10 $60 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 10 $22 +$7 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Khamenei seen in public by March 3? Jun 05 $14 −$10 -67%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $487 −$487 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $6 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $30 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $30 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $19 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $11 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $9 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.34 · official $5.31 (match) · 79 history records