Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:37:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E8 0xe842…7160 crypto 1058 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 101d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$143 (-4%) realized −$154 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate67%683W / 343L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day29.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$46
14 days+$29
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$56
sports 15% +$73
other 12% +$1
world 10% −$11
politics 2% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 151 -2.6% -11.9% 70% 59% -4.9%
≤30d 165 -5.8% -14.8% 68% 58% -7.3%
≤90d 512 -7.8% -16.6% 64% 48% -10.3%
all 1026 -7.2% -16.0% 67% 44% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.0% 44% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -24.1% 26% -18.6%
15% -31.4% 15% -26.4%
20% -38.1% 8% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized−$154
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses683 / 343
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions21
Markets (closed)1026 / 1058
History coverage102d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day29.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 1026 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Under 88¢ 92¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+4%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Under 93¢ 94¢ $31 $32 +$1 (+2%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Under 83¢ 91¢ $19 $20 +$2 (+9%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Under 78¢ 97¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+24%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 21¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+43%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Under 81¢ 100¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+23%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+12%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? No 74¢ 86¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+16%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 67¢ 96¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+43%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 58¢ 92¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+60%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Under 71¢ 76¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-24%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Under 31¢ 64¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+106%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-32%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Under 44¢ 86¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+94%)
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Yes 33¢ 32¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Under 88¢ 70¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-20%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals Yes 53¢ 16¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-69%)
Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ goals Yes 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026- Jun 28 $1 +$2 +178%
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $2 $0 -1%
Panama vs. England: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 28 $13 −$1 -7%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 28 $4 +$4 +93%
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $35 −$2 -6%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $1 $0 +49%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $1 +$1 +73%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $2 +$1 +46%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $3 +$1 +20%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $3 +$1 +21%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $3 +$1 +27%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $3 +$1 +29%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $5 $0 +7%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $9 +$2 +18%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $12 +$1 +9%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $22 +$3 +13%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $27 +$5 +18%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $2 $0 +13%
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $4 +$1 +14%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 27 $3 +$3 +93%
Panama vs. England: England O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 27 $1 +$1 +64%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $1 $0 +32%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $2 $0 +21%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $4 +$1 +16%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $10 +$1 +8%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $7 +$1 +13%
Panama vs. England: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $5 +$2 +43%
Panama vs. England: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $17 +$5 +28%
Panama vs. England: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $40 +$7 +18%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Senegal vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $6 −$3 -53%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 27 $6 +$3 +42%
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 27 $11 +$6 +55%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $6 +$1 +13%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $2 $0 +17%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $1 $0 +48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $3 $0 +16%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $25 +$4 +14%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $5 +$1 +23%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $1 $0 +32%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $3 +$2 +52%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $1 +$1 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Argentina: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 88¢ $2 58m
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026- SELL 99¢ $3 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 55¢ $2 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $2 1h
Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $1 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 91¢ $4 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 82¢ $2 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 82¢ $2 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 81¢ $3 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 86¢ $3 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 61¢ $1 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 44¢ $1 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 31¢ $1 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Total Corners Odd or Even? SELL Odd 49¢ $12 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Total Corners Odd or Even? BUY Odd 51¢ $6 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 88¢ $10 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 83¢ $5 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026- BUY 35¢ $1 1h
Argentina leading at halftime? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY 60¢ $2 1h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $1 1h
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 53¢ $1 1h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $1 1h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals AND Argentina leading at halftime? AND Will Arg BUY 42¢ $1 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 74¢ $4 1h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 46¢ $32 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 82¢ $2 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $1 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Total Corners Odd or Even? BUY Odd 51¢ $2 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 71¢ $3 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 80¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.81 · official $151.76 · 3500 history records