Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:11:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E8
0xe840…733c
sports · 524 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$174 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$220 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$143
Realized−$220
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses240 / 274
Est. fees paid−$76
Open positions10
Markets (closed)514 / 524
History coverage80d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 10 History 514 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$185
7 days+$117
14 days+$258
30 days−$257
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Germany 48¢ 54¢ $24 $27 +$3 (+11%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 69¢ 69¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+1%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 69¢ 68¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 54¢ 51¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Under 52¢ 52¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Uruguay leading at halftime? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 42¢ 36¢ $11 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 Under 42¢ 40¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-4%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Yes 33¢ 28¢ $7 $5 −$1 (-17%)
Netherlands leading at halftime? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5 Under 47¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 Over 43¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Connecticut Sun vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 168.5 Over 49¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Toronto Blue Jays 37¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Under 45¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles Tampa Bay Rays 52¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Under 59¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Tampa Bay Rays 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Under 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) Spurs 52¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Sinja Kraus vs Anna-Lena Friedsam Anna-Lena Friedsam 23¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Over 46¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Connecticut Sun 26¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score No 54¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Cervia: Andrea Guerrieri vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Carlo Alberto Caniato 35¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja Jun 14 $15 −$1 -3%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $15 +$16 +109%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $22 +$14 +65%
Set Handicap: Collignon (-1.5) vs Agut (+1.5) Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $50 +$13 +26%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $24 +$10 +42%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 14 $8 +$7 +83%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $18 +$9 +50%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $35 +$10 +29%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $13 +$10 +76%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 170.5 Jun 14 $9 +$9 +105%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $14 +$15 +105%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $23 −$23 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $8 +$12 +152%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $8 +$10 +129%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $14 +$15 +109%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $20 +$9 +44%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5) Jun 13 $15 +$15 +97%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Michael Mmo Jun 13 $15 +$10 +65%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $10 −$9 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $15 −$14 -99%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 13 $13 −$13 -98%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $14 +$16 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $43 +$26 +60%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $15 +$12 +76%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $15 +$15 +103%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 170.5 Jun 12 $17 −$17 -99%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Set Handicap: Jones (-1.5) vs Romano (+1.5) Jun 12 $15 +$14 +90%
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 12 $10 +$26 +276%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $12 −$12 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $20 +$14 +70%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $17 +$14 +83%
Set Handicap: Riedi (-1.5) vs Bu (+1.5) Jun 11 $15 $0 -2%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $9 +$22 +238%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 11 $48 −$48 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $25 +$24 +93%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 11 $15 −$15 -99%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 170.5 Jun 10 $13 −$13 -99%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 168.5 Jun 10 $14 −$14 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $15 +$17 +114%
Set Handicap: Bencic (-1.5) vs Dart (+1.5) Jun 10 $15 −$1 -3%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $13 −$13 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 10 $13 −$13 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 99% −$200
other 1% −$21
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 52¢ $12 1h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja BUY Polina Kudermetova 51¢ $15 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 54¢ $15 7h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 42¢ $8 7h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm BUY Martin Damm 47¢ $15 7h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Blinkova 60¢ $22 7h
Set Handicap: Collignon (-1.5) vs Agut (+1.5) BUY Agut 55¢ $15 9h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $11 9h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $25 10h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $7 11h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Haiti 66¢ $18 15h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $23 15h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 77¢ $35 15h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 BUY Under 54¢ $8 17h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $8 21h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 46¢ $10 25h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 69¢ $20 25h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 56¢ $13 25h
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 170.5 BUY Under 48¢ $9 25h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $11 25h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 69¢ $26 27h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 59¢ $15 27h
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5) BUY Minaur 50¢ $15 27h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Michael Mmo BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 60¢ $15 29h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 49¢ $13 31h
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 19¢ $5 31h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $8 34h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 32¢ $5 35h
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $24 36h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $14 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +1.4% -8.3% 49% 49% +1.2%
≤30d 224 -8.3% -17.1% 43% 43% -16.4%
≤90d 514 +0.5% -9.1% 47% 46% -13.4%
all 514 +0.5% -9.1% 47% 46% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 46% -13.4%
10% -17.8% 46% -21.7%
15% -25.7% 44% -29.2%
20% -33.0% 43% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142.73 · official $142.74 (match) · 952 history records