Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:40:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe83c…5e8f other 314 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 80d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL +$136,223 (+15%) realized +$126,697 · open +$9,526
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +68% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate30%196W / 457L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$2,937per market
Trades / day27.1pace
Fees−$1,501est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$50,740now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 80d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$24,809
sports 36% +$93,977
world 1% −$727
crypto 0% +$1,571
weather 0% +$934
politics 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)+52.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 390 -19.0% -26.7% 6% 5% -62.7%
≤30d 462 -1.7% -11.1% 11% 8% -7.1%
≤90d 653 +68.2% +52.2% 30% 16% +1.6%
all 653 +68.2% +52.2% 30% 16% +1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +52.2% 16% +1.6%
10% +37.6% 13% -8.1%
15% ← realistic here +24.3% 13% -17.0%
20% +12.1% 12% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +68% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +92% → late +45% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,919 vs −$296 · ×6.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.78 per $1 lost it wins $2.78
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$50,740
Realized+$126,697
Unrealized+$9,526
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses196 / 457
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$1,501
Open positions52
Markets (closed)653 / 314
History coverage80d ⚠
Avg bet$2,937
Trades / day27.1
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 52 History 653 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 41¢ 48¢ $6,773 $7,841 +$1,068 (+16%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 22¢ $591 $7,678 +$7,087 (+1199%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 14¢ $711 $5,825 +$5,113 (+719%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 10¢ $711 $4,374 +$3,663 (+515%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $711 $2,411 +$1,700 (+239%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $641 $2,212 +$1,571 (+245%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 8¢ $470 $2,156 +$1,686 (+359%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 6¢ 12¢ $953 $2,034 +$1,081 (+114%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $2,000 $2,015 +$16 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $711 $1,942 +$1,230 (+173%)
Will San Diego Padres win the 2026 National League Championship Series? No 98¢ 98¢ $1,391 $1,387 −$4 (-0%)
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 97¢ $1,282 $1,290 +$7 (+1%)
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 95¢ $864 $868 +$4 (+0%)
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $799 $803 +$4 (+1%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $750 $751 +$0 (+0%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 10¢ $1,367 $707 −$660 (-48%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 28¢ $453 $645 +$192 (+42%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $711 $619 −$92 (-13%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $711 $533 −$178 (-25%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $535 $530 −$5 (-1%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $592 $444 −$148 (-25%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $467 $434 −$33 (-7%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $282 $430 +$148 (+52%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $238 $392 +$154 (+65%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 90¢ $349 $353 +$4 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 445 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Red Wings vs. Bruins: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Hikari win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 26 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Desmond Bane win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the New York Islanders win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 26 $1 +$13,139 +1033814%
Spread: CA Banfield (-0.5) Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Bucks vs. Mavericks Jun 26 $278 −$278 -100%
Lions vs. Eagles: O/U 47.5 Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bucks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5 Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Bucks (-1.5) Jun 26 $560 −$560 -100%
Lightning vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Jazz vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 117.5 Jun 26 $210 −$210 -100%
Will LDLC ASVEL win the 2025-26 Euroleague? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 26 $33 +$4,768 +14348%
Will CA Belgrano win on 2025-10-18? Jun 26 $316 −$316 -100%
Will Jose Alvarado win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Heat (-6.5) Jun 26 $530 −$530 -100%
Celtics vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 114.5 Jun 26 $198 −$198 -100%
Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 240.5 Jun 26 $140 −$140 -100%
Cowboys vs. Raiders Jun 26 $420 −$420 -100%
Will F1 win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 26 $13 −$13 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Pistons: O/U 235.5 Jun 26 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2025-10-18? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Landry Shamet win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Nick Suzuki win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 26 $748 +$12,424 +1660%
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $604 −$711 -118%
Flyers vs. Kraken Jun 26 $420 −$420 -100%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Jun 26 $213 +$6 +3%
Will Markéta Vondroušová win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Heat (-5.5) Jun 26 $310 −$310 -100%
1H Spread: Pistons (-2.5) Jun 26 $89 −$89 -100%
Cowboys vs. Raiders: O/U 49.5 Jun 26 $210 −$210 -100%
Bruins vs. Blues Jun 26 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Josh Hart win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 228.5 Jun 26 $525 −$525 -100%
Devils vs. Bruins Jun 26 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Patrick Rodgers win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Commanders vs. Vikings Jun 26 $560 −$560 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $29 −$29 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 26 $280 −$280 -100%
Garcia vs. Onama Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Saski Baskonia Jun 26 $125 −$125 -100%
Bulls vs. Hawks: O/U 253.5 Jun 26 $400 −$400 -100%
Devils vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 26 $25 −$25 -100%
76ers vs. Nets: 1H Moneyline Jun 26 $34 −$34 -100%
Spurs vs. Pelicans: O/U 238.5 Jun 26 $210 −$210 -100%
Kings vs. Pacers: O/U 235.5 Jun 26 $140 −$140 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $86 48m
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $78 1h
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $271 1h
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $566 2h
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $6 2h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $751 2h
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $16 11h
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $12 11h
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $20 16h
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $168 17h
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $163 17h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $1,000 18h
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $3 18h
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $51 18h
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $345 19h
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $19 20h
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $44 23h
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $45 23h
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $45 24h
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $45 24h
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $32 24h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 18¢ $74 25h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 18¢ $106 25h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 18¢ $20 25h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $1,001 25h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $1,001 28h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $1,000 28h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $1,000 28h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $1,000 28h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $1,000 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50,739.74 · official $50,741.66 (match) · 3500 history records