Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:09:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
E8 0xe83a…8355 crypto 2068 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 30d only
✗ bot/MM pace (79 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,406 (-29%) realized −$1,400 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate57%1029W / 782L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day78.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$333
7 days+$408
14 days+$411
30 days+$292
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$1,045
sports 1% +$7
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (79 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1120 +11.7% +1.1% 60% 59% +3.6%
≤30d 1626 +4.7% -5.3% 57% 56% -2.6%
≤90d 1811 +4.7% -5.3% 57% 56% -2.7%
all 1811 +4.7% -5.3% 57% 56% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover78.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.3% 56% -2.7%
10% ← realistic here -14.4% 51% -12.0%
15% -22.6% 39% -20.5%
20% -30.2% 38% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$1,400
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses1029 / 782
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions19
Markets (closed)1811 / 2068
History coverage31d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day78.7
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 1811 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Galions 40¢ 100¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+148%)
Royan: Pierre Delage vs Svyatoslav Gulin Svyatoslav Gulin 75¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+32%)
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs Lindorfitos 33¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+203%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 68¢ 84¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+23%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage G2 Ares 33¢ 40¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+22%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 42¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+137%)
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Under 63¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+59%)
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio Ekaterine Gorgodze 63¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+58%)
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Infinite 45¢ 68¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 2 Winner Lindorfitos 75¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+33%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 86¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner G2 Ares 48¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Taylah Preston 50¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Elias Ymer 45¢ 18¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-61%)
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Solary 7¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-99%)
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio Nuria Brancaccio 57¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Under 28¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs x5 Gaming 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners Under 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 479 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - May 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 1, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 7, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 26, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 23, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 1, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 8, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 6, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 2, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 1, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY G2 Ares 41¢ $1 9m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 Ares 48¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 18m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Infinite 45¢ $1 21m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 23m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 23m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 38¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 33m
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio BUY Ekaterine Gorgodze 63¢ $1 37m
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle BUY Elias Ymer 45¢ $1 39m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 43m
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 9¢ $1 48m
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 9¢ $1 49m
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 8¢ $1 49m
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 10¢ $1 51m
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 9¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 53m
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 3¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 57m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 58m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $1 58m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $0 58m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 58m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY G2 Ares 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 1h
Royan: Pierre Delage vs Svyatoslav Gulin BUY Svyatoslav Gulin 74¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 68¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.58 · official $32.58 (match) · 3500 history records