Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:43:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E8 0xe83a…8ae1 crypto 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$43 (-16%) realized −$31 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate39%7W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day25.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$42
crypto 29% −$16
sports 25% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-37.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -31.3% -37.9% 39% 22% -39.0%
≤30d 18 -31.3% -37.9% 39% 22% -39.0%
≤90d 18 -31.3% -37.9% 39% 22% -39.0%
all 18 -31.3% -37.9% 39% 22% -39.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.9% 22% -39.0%
10% ← realistic here -43.8% 22% -44.9%
15% -49.2% 17% -50.2%
20% -54.2% 11% -55.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$31
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses7 / 11
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage2d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day25.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 42¢ 34¢ $59 $47 −$12 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $8 +$4 +53%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $8 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$1 -46%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Austria to score first vs. Argentina? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$2 +7%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series Jun 22 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +1%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 22 $13 −$6 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 20 $8 +$4 +47%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 20 $6 −$1 -14%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 −$30 -61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $61 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 41¢ $11 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $12 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 72¢ $12 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $8 4h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $8 4h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 5h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 2¢ $0 5h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 59¢ $10 5h
Austria to score first vs. Argentina? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 7h
Austria to score first vs. Argentina? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 11h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series SELL KOLESIE 36¢ $6 11h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series SELL Walczaki 80¢ $1 11h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series BUY KOLESIE 19¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 11h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series SELL Walczaki 38¢ $10 11h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series SELL Walczaki 27¢ $10 11h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series BUY Walczaki 19¢ $4 12h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series BUY Walczaki 22¢ $10 12h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Inner Circle 36¢ $10 12h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Inner Circle 30¢ $2 12h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Inner Circle 29¢ $2 12h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Inner Circle 37¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.45 · official $47.45 (match) · 61 history records