Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:44:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe839…0a9d sports 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (170 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$117 (+5%) realized +$117 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate78%31W / 9L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day170.0pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$245
sports 29% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (170 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +6.8% -3.4% 78% 25% +1.5%
≤30d 40 +6.8% -3.4% 78% 25% +1.5%
≤90d 40 +6.8% -3.4% 78% 25% +1.5%
all 40 +6.8% -3.4% 78% 25% +1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover170.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.4% 25% +1.5%
10% ← realistic here -12.6% 12% -8.2%
15% -21.1% 5% -17.1%
20% -28.8% 0% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$5 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.84 per $1 lost it wins $6.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$117
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses31 / 9
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage1d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day170.0
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $433 +$170 +39%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $214 +$21 +10%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $35 +$4 +10%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $503 −$30 -6%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 -12%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $44 +$5 +11%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $15 +$1 +5%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $12 $0 -2%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 16 $18 $0 +0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $226 +$50 +22%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $30 +$1 +3%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $475 +$55 +12%
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 16 $3 $0 -2%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom Jun 16 $6 $0 +2%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $29 +$1 +2%
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Dublin: Ivan Ivanov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 16 $13 −$1 -4%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $7 −$1 -10%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $4 $0 -2%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $7 $0 -7%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $7 +$1 +10%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $21 +$1 +6%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $27 +$1 +5%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch Jun 16 $3 $0 +4%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $33 +$1 +3%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $14 +$1 +5%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $13 +$4 +32%
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 16 $8 $0 +3%
Dublin: Benjamin Willwerth vs Yi Zhou Jun 16 $3 +$2 +48%
Royan: Raphael Perot vs Robin Bertrand Jun 16 $8 +$1 +9%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $15 +$5 +31%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $9 +$2 +21%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $32 −$16 -50%
Poznan: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Jan Choinski Jun 16 $4 +$1 +32%
Poznan: Hynek Barton vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 16 $8 +$1 +16%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $7 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 87¢ $28 47m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 84¢ $19 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $235 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $214 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 74¢ $203 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $201 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 80¢ $309 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 78¢ $63 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $205 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 22¢ $2 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 23¢ $3 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 81¢ $1 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 83¢ $2 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 82¢ $1 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 82¢ $1 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 83¢ $1 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 78¢ $4 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 50¢ $3 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 50¢ $3 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 49¢ $0 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 49¢ $3 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 45¢ $3 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 69¢ $14 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 67¢ $5 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 67¢ $5 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 67¢ $4 2h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 85¢ $5 2h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 84¢ $5 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 83¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 176 history records