Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:28:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E8 0xe838…3832 sports 172 markets active 1h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,258 (+4%) realized +$1,326 · open −$68
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%86W / 77L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$182per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$221est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$960now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$370
14 days+$706
30 days−$276
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$1,264
other 9% −$174
weather 0% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +17.6% +6.4% 100% 100% +6.4%
≤30d 3 -2.0% -11.3% 67% 67% -13.8%
≤90d 26 -22.9% -30.3% 38% 31% -12.0%
all 163 +13.4% +2.6% 53% 47% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.6% 47% -4.5%
10% -7.2% 39% -13.6%
15% -16.2% 31% -22.0%
20% -24.4% 25% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +22% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$85 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$960
Realized+$1,326
Unrealized−$68
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses86 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$221
Open positions9
Markets (closed)163 / 172
History coverage233d
Avg bet$182
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ventuals launch a token by December 31 2026? No 96¢ 82¢ $354 $303 −$51 (-14%)
3Jane FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? No 88¢ 96¢ $187 $202 +$15 (+8%)
Cap FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 95¢ 91¢ $189 $180 −$9 (-5%)
Will Cap launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $71 $72 +$2 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $79 $69 −$10 (-13%)
Cap FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 97¢ 97¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $53 $40 −$13 (-24%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $36 $33 −$2 (-6%)
Tuyo FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 71¢ 74¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2,102 +$370 +18%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $1,583 +$336 +21%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $2,194 −$983 -45%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $230 −$152 -66%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $26 −$26 -99%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 12 $3,035 +$1,077 +36%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $10 +$15 +144%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $34 −$26 -77%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $97 −$32 -33%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $23 −$20 -86%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $52 +$35 +68%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $174 +$26 +15%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $60 +$39 +65%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 08 $255 −$119 -46%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 07 $36 −$1 -2%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 06 $173 +$17 +10%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 04 $416 −$156 -38%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 03 $263 −$214 -81%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 02 $290 −$101 -35%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $534 −$324 -61%
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Apr 28 $448 +$218 +49%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $381 −$252 -66%
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Apr 13 $764 −$345 -45%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $27 −$27 -100%
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 08 $368 +$25 +7%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 04 $142 −$35 -24%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 20 $179 −$134 -74%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 02 $90 −$36 -40%
Will Jaylen Brown win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 02 $6 −$4 -65%
Grizzlies vs. Rockets Jan 27 $109 +$84 +77%
Wizards vs. Hornets Jan 24 $140 −$140 -100%
Nuggets vs. Bucks Jan 24 $261 +$21 +8%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Raptors vs. Warriors Jan 21 $220 +$425 +193%
Spurs vs. Rockets Jan 21 $81 +$3 +4%
Cavaliers vs. Hornets Jan 21 $77 +$61 +79%
Raptors vs. Kings Jan 20 $97 +$118 +122%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 20 $40 −$2 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 20 $104 −$12 -12%
Pistons vs. Pelicans Jan 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or higher on January 19 Jan 19 $2 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on January 19? Jan 19 $46 +$30 +65%
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 19 $20 −$12 -60%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 19? Jan 19 $12 +$3 +25%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C or higher on January 18 Jan 19 $22 +$7 +32%
Trail Blazers vs. Kings Jan 19 $327 +$234 +72%
Hornets vs. Nuggets Jan 19 $390 −$327 -84%
Pelicans vs. Rockets Jan 19 $114 −$70 -62%
Raptors vs. Trail Blazers Jan 19 $0 +$3 +1160%
Jazz vs. Spurs Jan 19 $87 −$87 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cap FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 97¢ $46 1h
Cap FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 93¢ $93 19h
Tuyo FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 71¢ $14 27h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $53 40h
Cap FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 98¢ $96 2d
Will Cap launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $71 2d
Will Ventuals launch a token by December 31 2026? BUY No 97¢ $83 2d
Will Ventuals launch a token by December 31 2026? BUY No 95¢ $29 2d
Will Ventuals launch a token by December 31 2026? BUY No 96¢ $19 2d
Will Ventuals launch a token by December 31 2026? BUY No 96¢ $91 2d
Will Ventuals launch a token by December 31 2026? BUY No 96¢ $134 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $79 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $24 3d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 74¢ $505 4d
3Jane FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? BUY No 88¢ $188 7d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $4 12d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 82¢ $453 12d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $237 12d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $908 12d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 20¢ $39 12d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 18¢ $158 12d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 36¢ $93 12d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 36¢ $565 12d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 12d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 40¢ $436 12d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 40¢ $112 12d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 76¢ $1 14d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 76¢ $4 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $960.36 · official $958.89 (match) · 1741 history records