Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:51:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E8 0xe834…a88e sports 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,635 (-28%) realized −$3,881 · open +$246
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR73%break-even
Win rate82%9W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$930per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$82est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$5,177now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$3,660
other 47% +$451
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +73%
net ROI/market (all)+15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +27.7% +15.6% 82% 73% -48.5%
≤30d 11 +27.7% +15.6% 82% 73% -48.5%
≤90d 11 +27.7% +15.6% 82% 73% -48.5%
all 11 +27.7% +15.6% 82% 73% -48.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +15.6% 73% -48.5%
10% ← realistic here +4.5% 73% -53.5%
15% -5.6% 64% -58.0%
20% -14.8% 36% -62.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$156 vs −$2,430 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$5,177
Realized−$3,881
Unrealized+$246
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses9 / 2
Est. fees paid−$82
Open positions3
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage2d
Avg bet$930
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $3,917 $3,958 +$41 (+1%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Over 64¢ 100¢ $444 $693 +$249 (+56%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Over 87¢ 80¢ $570 $526 −$44 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $404 +$168 +42%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $202 +$126 +62%
United States to score first vs. Australia? Jun 19 $202 +$101 +50%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 19 $102 +$121 +119%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $4,522 −$4,459 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $501 +$31 +6%
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 18 $304 +$188 +62%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $406 −$400 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $934 +$449 +48%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $101 +$84 +82%
Colombia to score first vs. Uzbekistan? Jun 18 $403 +$137 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 87¢ $572 21m
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $449 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $404 3h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $3,917 10h
United States leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 10h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 10h
United States to score first vs. Australia? BUY Yes 66¢ $202 10h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $3,001 27h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $1,014 27h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $507 27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 94¢ $501 29h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $152 37h
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? BUY Yes 61¢ $304 37h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $254 37h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 54¢ $228 46h
Colombia leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $185 46h
Colombia to score first vs. Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 100¢ $540 46h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 2d
Colombia to score first vs. Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 74¢ $403 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $504 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $202 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,177.43 · official $5,197.16 (match) · 28 history records