Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:44:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe82f…3f58 politics 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,790 (-2%) realized −$1,791 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate12%10W / 74L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,297per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$1,011now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$7
14 days−$11
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$212
politics 38% −$54
sports 16% −$1,965
tech 2% −$1
crypto 1% +$4
culture 1% −$2
world 1% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 50 -2.6% -11.8% 6% 0% -11.7%
all 84 -2.6% -11.9% 12% 5% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 5% -11.0%
10% -20.3% 5% -19.5%
15% -28.0% 4% -27.3%
20% -35.1% 4% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,573) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$29 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$1,011
Realized−$1,791
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses10 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions2
Markets (closed)84 / 86
History coverage116d
Avg bet$1,297
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $727 $728 +$1 (+0%)
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $283 $283 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $591 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 26 $3,172 −$4 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $2,387 −$3 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 19 $470 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $452 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $322 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $235 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $1,189 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,300 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,108 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2,335 −$4 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,388 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,534 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,748 −$4 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $4,914 −$5 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $3,406 −$5 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $2,196 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 04 $516 $0 +0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $1,054 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $1,076 −$2 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 28 $1,076 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1,040 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $1,006 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,268 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $1,275 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 07 $1,544 −$2 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,540 −$2 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 07 $3,012 −$4 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,487 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $1,381 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $1,284 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 05 $1,385 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $825 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? May 01 $809 +$2 +0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $2,749 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $681 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 22 $1,112 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $1,039 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $2,638 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,318 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $2,427 −$2 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $1,457 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $1,165 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $1,220 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $2,305 −$2 -0%
76ers vs. Rockets Apr 13 $1,685 −$1,655 -98%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $154 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $130 $0 -0%
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 05 $45 −$11 -25%
Based FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 03 $99 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $284 1h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $455 25h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $456 27h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $309 29h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $309 33h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $389 2d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $389 2d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $469 7d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $470 8d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $452 8d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $452 8d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $322 8d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $322 8d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $235 9d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $235 9d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $727 10d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,187 12d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,189 13d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,298 14d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,300 15d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,107 15d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,108 15d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,325 15d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,327 15d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,386 18d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,388 19d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,532 19d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,534 20d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,418 20d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,420 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,011.17 · official $1,011.17 (match) · 302 history records