Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T15:27:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
E8 0xe82e…a132 crypto 16 markets active 8d ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$4 (-17%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate44%7W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$4
sports 33% $0
other 17% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-35.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +11.5% +0.9% 75% 50% +1.2%
≤90d 5 +10.1% -0.4% 80% 40% -1.7%
all 16 -28.4% -35.2% 44% 31% -24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.2% 31% -24.2%
10% -41.4% 25% -31.5%
15% -47.0% 25% -38.1%
20% -52.2% 12% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% too few recent
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses7 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage90d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +42%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO5) - VCT China Playoffs May 10 $3 $0 +4%
Valorant: Any Questions Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - China Evolution Se Mar 21 $2 −$1 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs Any Questions Gaming (BO3) - China E Mar 18 $2 +$2 +86%
Valorant: Wolves Esports vs Any Questions Gaming (BO3) - China Evoluti Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Mar 16 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Mar 16 $1 $0 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 16? Mar 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Mar 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Mar 16 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 97¢ $2 9d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 10d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 10d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO5) - VCT China Playoffs SELL XLG Gaming $0 43d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO5) - VCT China Playoffs BUY XLG Gaming 19¢ $1 43d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO5) - VCT China Playoffs SELL EDward Gaming 80¢ $3 43d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO5) - VCT China Playoffs BUY EDward Gaming 44¢ $1 43d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO5) - VCT China Playoffs BUY EDward Gaming 62¢ $1 43d
Valorant: Any Questions Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - China Evolution Se BUY Any Questions Gaming $1 93d
Valorant: Any Questions Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - China Evolution Se SELL Any Questions Gaming $1 93d
Valorant: Any Questions Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - China Evolution Se BUY Any Questions Gaming $1 93d
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs Any Questions Gaming (BO3) - China E SELL Any Questions Gaming 31¢ $4 96d
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs Any Questions Gaming (BO3) - China E BUY Any Questions Gaming 14¢ $1 96d
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs Any Questions Gaming (BO3) - China E BUY Any Questions Gaming 20¢ $1 96d
Valorant: Wolves Esports vs Any Questions Gaming (BO3) - China Evoluti BUY Wolves Esports 67¢ $1 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $1 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 16? SELL Down $1 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down $1 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 16? BUY Down $1 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 98d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records