Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:31:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

E8 0xe82e…e9a0 other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$59 (+8%) realized +$67 · open −$8

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip

Net edge+4%after slip

Net WR62%break-even

Win rate62%8W / 5L

Drawdown7%max

Avg bet$41per market

Trades / day3.0pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$316now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$204

7 days+$210

14 days+$199

30 days+$199

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +62%

net ROI/market (all)+4.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	+36.4%	+23.4%	73%	73%	+39.1%
≤30d	13	+15.4%	+4.5%	62%	62%	+35.2%
≤90d	13	+15.4%	+4.5%	62%	62%	+35.2%
all	13	+15.4%	+4.5%	62%	62%	+35.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+4.5%	62%	+35.2%
10%	-5.5%	46%	+22.3%
15%	-14.7%	46%	+10.5%
20%	-23.0%	38%	-0.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 61% · top 2 96% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +50% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +15% · $-wt +50% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +3% → late +26% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$28 vs −$4 · ×6.25 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×10.0 per $1 lost it wins $10.0

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$316

Realized+$67

Unrealized−$8

Win rate (resolved)62%

Wins / losses8 / 5

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions5

Markets (closed)13 / 18

History coverage8d

Avg bet$41

Trades / day3.0

Drawdown7%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 13 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	74¢	74¢	$160	$159	−$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	42¢	40¢	$160	$154	−$6 (-4%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	23¢	20¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-15%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?	Yes	14¢	10¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-32%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	3¢	1¢	$1	$0	−$1 (-82%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$192	+$135	+70%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	Jun 28	$111	+$78	+70%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?	Jun 28	$51	−$4	-8%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Jun 28	$15	−$7	-43%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$2	+$2	+90%
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$7	+$1	+17%
Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?	Jun 27	$2	$0	-13%
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$4	+$3	+62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$2	+$2	+93%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$2	$0	+16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$1	$0	+48%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30	Jun 22	$10	−$10	-100%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia?	Jun 21	$1	−$1	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	42¢	$163	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	74¢	$161	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	100¢	$327	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	58¢	$192	17h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	58¢	$51	28h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?	SELL Yes	25¢	$47	28h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$51	28h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	58¢	$41	28h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	58¢	$9	28h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	SELL Yes	9¢	$9	28h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	60¢	$11	35h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	52¢	$2	2d
Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?	SELL Yes	11¢	$2	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	85¢	$7	2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	61¢	$4	3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	51¢	$2	5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	86¢	$2	6d
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?	BUY Yes	14¢	$1	7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	67¢	$1	7d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju	BUY Yes	3¢	$1	8d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	BUY Yes	15¢	$15	8d
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia?	BUY Yes	3¢	$1	8d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet	BUY No	23¢	$2	8d
Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?	BUY Yes	12¢	$2	8d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30	BUY No	0¢	$10	8d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $315.76 · official $315.76 (match) · 33 history records