Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:05:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E8 0xe82d…d96b other 119 markets active 2d ago coverage 227d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$772 (-1%) realized −$1,861 · open +$1,089
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate60%70W / 46L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$477per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$3,413now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$335
14 days+$123
30 days+$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% −$3,819
other 24% +$1,591
politics 12% +$973
sports 3% +$478
finance 1% −$7
tech 0% −$93
crypto 0% −$81
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +42.8% +29.2% 25% 25% +20.0%
≤30d 34 +23.9% +12.1% 24% 24% -7.1%
≤90d 58 +6.7% -3.5% 40% 38% -16.6%
all 116 +6.0% -4.1% 60% 41% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 41% -12.9%
10% -13.3% 27% -21.3%
15% -21.7% 18% -28.9%
20% -29.3% 16% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$149 vs −$272 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

227d coverage
Net worth$3,413
Realized−$1,861
Unrealized+$1,089
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses70 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions3
Markets (closed)116 / 119
History coverage227d
Avg bet$477
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 62¢ 100¢ $1,069 $1,708 +$639 (+60%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 59¢ 72¢ $1,005 $1,232 +$228 (+23%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 50¢ 94¢ $250 $472 +$222 (+89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $42 −$41 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $68 −$67 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $120 −$117 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $74 −$72 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $43 −$42 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $62 −$61 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $22 +$66 +307%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $42 +$592 +1396%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $120 −$118 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $27 −$27 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $28 −$28 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$4 +226%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $23 −$22 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $11 −$10 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $82 −$81 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $69 +$305 +442%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $12 +$7 +55%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$57 +276%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $23 +$138 +596%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $14 −$14 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 10 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $3,372 −$131 -4%
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Ministe May 23 $64 +$11 +17%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? May 19 $11 −$11 -97%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 18 $383 +$67 +18%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun May 18 $473 +$83 +18%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner May 13 $377 −$374 -99%
Iran leadership change by April 30? May 01 $495 +$55 +11%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30? May 01 $381 +$196 +52%
James Comey arrested by May 15? Apr 29 $40 −$40 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Apr 27 $48 −$48 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Apr 23 $175 +$105 +60%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Apr 23 $175 +$153 +87%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic - Game 1 Winner Apr 23 $285 +$143 +50%
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Ministe Apr 22 $199 +$48 +24%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Apr 20 $189 −$189 -100%
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Ministe Apr 20 $17 +$3 +19%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 14 $941 −$941 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 14 $660 −$660 -100%
Will Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation? Apr 06 $182 −$182 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $42 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $68 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $120 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $74 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $43 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $62 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $11 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $42 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $120 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $27 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $22 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $28 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $23 4d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $17 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $82 4d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $9 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $69 4d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $18 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $12 5d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 5d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 5d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $23 5d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $18 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $30 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $46 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 7d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $14 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,413.05 · official $3,413.05 (match) · 366 history records