Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:26:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe82c…4d90 crypto 1131 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$3,881 (-30%) realized −$403 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate53%594W / 530L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day44.0pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$508now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$243
7 days+$1,128
14 days−$119
30 days−$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$277
sports 29% −$133
other 7% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +137.6% +114.9% 83% 83% +43.0%
≤30d 18 +61.6% +46.2% 56% 56% -12.8%
≤90d 1124 -0.8% -10.2% 53% 52% -12.4%
all 1124 -0.8% -10.2% 53% 52% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 52% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 51% -20.8%
15% -26.7% 50% -28.5%
20% -33.8% 49% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$508
Realized−$403
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses594 / 530
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1124 / 1131
History coverage54d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day44.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 1124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Team Vitality 38¢ 38¢ $190 $188 −$2 (-1%)
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Division One 60¢ 55¢ $174 $158 −$16 (-9%)
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner Team Refuser 61¢ 64¢ $70 $74 +$3 (+5%)
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 58¢ 56¢ $58 $56 −$2 (-4%)
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Refuser 58¢ 68¢ $23 $27 +$4 (+17%)
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Game Master 43¢ 42¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Game Master 40¢ 48¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+20%)
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Cloud9 58¢ 0¢ $501 $0 −$501 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 0¢ $105 $0 −$105 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - April 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Qualifier Playoffs paiN Gaming 34¢ 0¢ $170 $0 −$170 (-100%)
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs G2 Esports 56¢ 0¢ $56 $0 −$56 (-100%)
Game Handicap: C9 (-1.5) vs LYON (+1.5) Cloud9 34¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs MVK Esports 35¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Game Handicap: C9 (-2.5) vs LYON (+2.5) Cloud9 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $56 −$56 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $148 +$162 +110%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr Jun 13 $14 +$111 +788%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $6 +$26 +414%
Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) Jun 11 $51 +$34 +68%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 11 $69 +$41 +60%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 11 $101 +$31 +31%
Game Handicap: DK (-2.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+2.5) Jun 11 $139 +$275 +198%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 11 $251 +$306 +122%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 11 $501 +$68 +14%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 11 $505 +$234 +46%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $107 −$105 -99%
Game Handicap: C9 (-1.5) vs LYON (+1.5) Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Game Handicap: C9 (-2.5) vs LYON (+2.5) Jun 05 $3 −$2 -98%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 05 $173 −$170 -98%
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 04 $500 −$500 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 03 $506 −$501 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $168 −$71 -42%
XRP Up or Down - April 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Apr 26 $6 +$6 +101%
Solana Up or Down - April 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 25 $6 +$6 +96%
Solana Up or Down - April 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 25 $12 −$12 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 25 $12 +$14 +117%
Solana Up or Down - April 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Apr 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Apr 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Apr 25 $60 −$60 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Apr 25 $12 −$12 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Apr 25 $12 +$12 +100%
Solana Up or Down - April 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 25 $24 −$24 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 25 $24 +$30 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 25 $120 −$120 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 25 $6 +$7 +128%
Solana Up or Down - April 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 25 $6 +$6 +96%
Solana Up or Down - April 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 25 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Apr 25 $29 +$31 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Apr 25 $29 −$29 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 24 $6 +$6 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 24 $11 +$17 +150%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 24 $6 +$4 +62%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 58¢ $35 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 58¢ $23 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Game Master 40¢ $2 2h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Division One 56¢ $39 2h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China BUY Game Master 44¢ $2 2h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 58¢ $8 2h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 62¢ $62 2h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Team Refuser 58¢ $23 2h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China BUY Game Master 42¢ $2 2h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Division One 56¢ $6 3h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Division One 57¢ $46 3h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 56¢ $22 4h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 56¢ $25 4h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 56¢ $2 4h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 56¢ $1 4h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 56¢ $5 4h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Division One 56¢ $6 4h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Division One 56¢ $6 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 38¢ $84 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 38¢ $3 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 38¢ $39 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 38¢ $2 4h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Division One 58¢ $1 4h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Division One 58¢ $5 4h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Division One 67¢ $68 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 38¢ $3 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 38¢ $3 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 38¢ $57 4h
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr BUY Ilbirs eSports 11¢ $0 38h
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr BUY Ilbirs eSports 11¢ $11 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $508.26 · official $508.26 (match) · 3500 history records