Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:27:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
E8 0xe82a…da4a crypto 75 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$62 (+4%) realized +$70 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate68%47W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day19.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$55
14 days+$76
30 days+$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% +$6
other 20% +$50
sports 9% +$11
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +8.3% -2.1% 65% 55% -5.6%
≤30d 69 +13.1% +2.3% 68% 58% -4.2%
≤90d 69 +13.1% +2.3% 68% 58% -4.2%
all 69 +13.1% +2.3% 68% 58% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.3% 58% -4.2%
10% -7.5% 51% -13.4%
15% -16.4% 35% -21.8%
20% -24.6% 19% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$11 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized+$70
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses47 / 22
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)69 / 75
History coverage10d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day19.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Up 56¢ 44¢ $46 $35 −$10 (-23%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 58¢ 78¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+35%)
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt Nick Hardt 61¢ 74¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+22%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 19 $61 +$26 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 19 $67 +$51 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 19 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 19 $78 −$66 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $53 −$8 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 19 $41 +$18 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $71 +$11 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 19 $46 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 19 $22 +$7 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $35 +$10 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 19 $52 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$8 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 19 $93 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 19 $41 +$9 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $20 +$4 +20%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $6 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 19 $22 +$11 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -96%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $6 +$7 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 19 $3 $0 +14%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$2 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $44 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$4 +8%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 $0 -5%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 +$5 +474%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $56 +$29 +53%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7 +$3 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +216%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$3 +152%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +46%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 +$21 +83%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $31 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $20 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $31 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $31 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $21 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $20 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $20 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $12 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $30 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $6 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 30m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.52 · official $64.33 (match) · 258 history records