Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:02:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

E8 0xe828…b543 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$498 (-6%) realized −$476 · open −$22

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip

Net edge-43%after slip

Net WR20%break-even

Win rate20%1W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$1,285per market

Trades / day4.5pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit17%portable

Net worth$5,915now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +20%

net ROI/market (all)-41.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	-34.8%	-41.0%	20%	20%	-42.9%
≤30d	5	-34.8%	-41.0%	20%	20%	-42.9%
≤90d	5	-34.8%	-41.0%	20%	20%	-42.9%
all	5	-34.8%	-41.0%	20%	20%	-42.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.5 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-41.0%	20%	-42.9%
10%	-46.7%	20%	-48.3%
15%	-51.8%	20%	-53.3%
20%	-56.5%	20%	-57.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -37% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -35% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$82 vs −$159 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.13 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$5,915

Realized−$476

Unrealized−$22

Win rate (resolved)20%

Wins / losses1 / 4

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)5 / 6

History coverage3d

Avg bet$1,285

Trades / day4.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	13¢	13¢	$5,938	$5,915	−$22 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 22	$520	−$94	-18%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 19	$144	+$82	+57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$342	−$45	-13%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$510	−$399	-78%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$101	−$99	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$439	1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$4,103	1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$1,140	1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$410	1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$427	1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$520	28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	SELL No	11¢	$297	3d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	63¢	$144	3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	95¢	$98	3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	5¢	$68	3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	12¢	$342	3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	16¢	$101	3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	4¢	$343	3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	96¢	$99	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,915.31 · official $5,915.31 (match) · 17 history records