Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:37:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe827…5209 other 288 markets active 0h ago coverage 34d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 34d only
✗ bot/MM pace (93 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$12,266 (+3%) realized +$12,782 · open −$516
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate65%179W / 97L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$1,237per market
Trades / day93.4pace
Fees−$856est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$5,452now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$685
7 days−$5,032
14 days−$286
30 days+$6,543
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% +$1,315
world 22% +$4,538
crypto 16% +$524
sports 14% −$2,859
politics 7% +$2,133
finance 3% +$529
tech 3% −$130
economics 0% +$833
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (93 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 +26.7% +14.6% 60% 39% -15.8%
≤30d 229 +40.4% +27.0% 68% 34% -7.6%
≤90d 276 +30.7% +18.2% 65% 33% -7.5%
all 276 +30.7% +18.2% 65% 33% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover93.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +18.2% 33% -7.5%
10% +6.9% 26% -16.3%
15% ← realistic here -3.4% 21% -24.4%
20% -12.9% 19% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$965) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +30% → late +31% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$153 vs −$210 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$5,452
Realized+$12,782
Unrealized−$516
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses179 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$856
Open positions34
Markets (closed)276 / 288
History coverage34d ⚠
Avg bet$1,237
Trades / day93.4
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 276 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 78¢ 100¢ $2,018 $2,596 +$579 (+29%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 72¢ 74¢ $1,025 $1,061 +$36 (+4%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 28¢ 32¢ $601 $698 +$97 (+16%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $365 $380 +$14 (+4%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Yes 47¢ 20¢ $477 $200 −$278 (-58%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 74¢ 76¢ $148 $151 +$3 (+2%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 38¢ 14¢ $266 $101 −$165 (-62%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Down 47¢ 13¢ $353 $98 −$255 (-72%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 45¢ 54¢ $57 $69 +$11 (+20%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Yes 23¢ 34¢ $29 $44 +$15 (+50%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? No 58¢ 72¢ $18 $22 +$4 (+24%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes $21 $14 −$7 (-32%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 89¢ 74¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-17%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes 57¢ $170 $1 −$169 (-99%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $20 $0 −$20 (-98%)
Will Yonhy Lescano win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $20 $0 −$20 (-98%)
Will Fiorella Molinelli win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $20 $0 −$20 (-98%)
Will Roberto Chiabra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $20 $0 −$20 (-98%)
Will Vladimir Cerrón win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $20 $0 −$20 (-98%)
Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $20 $0 −$20 (-98%)
Will Wolfgang Grozo win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $20 $0 −$20 (-98%)
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $20 $0 −$20 (-98%)
Will César Acuña win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $20 $0 −$20 (-98%)
Will José Luna win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $20 $0 −$20 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31? Jun 17 $0 +$40 +111539%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $594 −$438 -74%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $665 −$582 -88%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $231 −$227 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $467 +$33 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $79 −$75 -96%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 16 $2,997 +$1 +0%
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will any FaZe member come out as a furry by July 31? Jun 16 $840 +$101 +12%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $412 +$275 +67%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $155 +$180 +116%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $6 $0 +6%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? Jun 15 $367 +$28 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$50 +101%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $385 −$164 -42%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $230 −$76 -33%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $287 +$754 +263%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $58 +$6 +11%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $268 +$90 +34%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in June? Jun 15 $46 +$13 +29%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $262 −$145 -56%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 15 $1,389 −$93 -7%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? Jun 14 $330 +$85 +26%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $520 −$114 -22%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $84 +$47 +56%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $162 −$161 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $258 −$258 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $398 +$45 +11%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $289 −$283 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $382 −$118 -31%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $3,384 −$104 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 14 $2,005 −$139 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $728 −$28 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $1,014 +$117 +12%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $214 −$41 -19%
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 +$6 +430%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $232 +$165 +71%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $303 +$3 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $1,217 −$252 -21%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2,108 −$82 -4%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $33 +$59 +179%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $736 +$666 +90%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $570 −$280 -49%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $221 −$217 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $417 +$263 +63%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $160 −$90 -56%
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 13 $29 +$8 +28%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $110 −$110 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $174 −$174 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $965 +$199 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $353 12m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 13m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $61 29m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 33¢ $99 37m
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $281 40m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 62¢ $17 42m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 60¢ $93 42m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 62¢ $31 42m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 63¢ $32 42m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 64¢ $32 42m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 56¢ $17 55m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 54¢ $18 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 57¢ $77 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $4 3h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $14 3h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $124 3h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $6 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $57 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL No $42 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 43¢ $4 6h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No $90 6h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 27¢ $270 6h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 28¢ $1 6h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 28¢ $4 6h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 28¢ $19 6h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 11¢ $110 7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 21¢ $210 7h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $844 8h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 84¢ $1 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,451.69 · official $5,431.23 (match) · 3500 history records