trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 13? | Yes | 21¢ | 30¢ | $29 | $43 | +$14 (+47%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 13? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-16%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 11? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | $9 | $0 | −$9 (-100%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 9? | Yes | 37¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 9? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 9? | Yes | 44¢ | 0¢ | $36 | $0 | −$36 (-100%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 9? | Yes | 21¢ | 0¢ | $15 | $0 | −$15 (-100%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 9? | Yes | 28¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 9? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 11? | Jun 11 | $10 | −$9 | -96% |
| Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 10? | Jun 10 | $7 | +$3 | +36% |
| GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? | Jun 10 | $10 | −$6 | -62% |
| Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 10? | Jun 10 | $27 | −$24 | -88% |
| Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 9? | Jun 09 | $37 | −$36 | -97% |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 9? | Jun 09 | $16 | −$15 | -96% |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 8? | Jun 09 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 8? | Jun 09 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 9? | Jun 09 | $5 | −$5 | -96% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET | Jun 08 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET | Jun 08 | $5 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 8? | Jun 08 | $12 | +$36 | +292% |
| Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri | Jun 08 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev | Jun 08 | $19 | −$19 | -100% |
| Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix | Jun 08 | $21 | −$21 | -100% |
| Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? | Jun 08 | $13 | −$13 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 9? | Jun 08 | $5 | −$5 | -97% |
| Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 9? | Jun 08 | $5 | −$5 | -96% |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 9? | Jun 08 | $5 | −$5 | -96% |
| Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? | Jun 07 | $55 | +$38 | +69% |
| Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix | Jun 06 | $17 | +$27 | +154% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 21 | -47.4% | -52.4% | 24% | 19% | -34.2% |
| ≤30d | 21 | -47.4% | -52.4% | 24% | 19% | -34.2% |
| ≤90d | 21 | -47.4% | -52.4% | 24% | 19% | -34.2% |
| all | 21 | -47.4% | -52.4% | 24% | 19% | -34.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -52.4% | 19% | -34.2% |
| 10% | -57.0% | 19% | -40.5% |
| 15% | -61.1% | 19% | -46.2% |
| 20% | -64.9% | 14% | -51.5% |