Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T03:06:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E8
0xe823…2a61
crypto · 124 markets active 5h ago
1.5score
−$1,095 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4,264 · open −$3,664
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$348
Realized+$4,264
Unrealized−$3,664
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses44 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)35%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)121 / 124
History coverage67d
Avg bet$936
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 3 History 121 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,917
7 days+$7,269
14 days+$835
30 days+$5,346
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Yes 16¢ 1¢ $4,000 $338 −$3,662 (-92%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-17%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $1,100 $0 −$1,100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $400 $0 −$400 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 3? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $400 $0 −$400 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $105 $0 −$105 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $2,033 $0 −$2,033 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $93 $0 −$93 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $340 $0 −$340 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $400 $0 −$400 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $102 $0 −$102 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $220 $0 −$220 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $1,891 $0 −$1,891 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $865 −$18 -2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5,124 −$3,471 -68%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $1,356 +$8,459 +624%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $519 +$566 +109%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $62 −$59 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1,319 +$444 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $374 +$986 +263%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $417 −$400 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $98 −$93 -95%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $1,000 −$90 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $812 +$512 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $454 +$365 +80%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $822 −$366 -45%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $1,371 −$168 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 09 $558 +$469 +84%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 09 $500 −$337 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 09 $459 +$401 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 09 $140 +$320 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 09 $72 +$69 +97%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $319 −$251 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 07 $154 −$148 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 07 $71 +$83 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 06 $425 −$400 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 06 $528 −$528 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $1,980 −$965 -49%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $522 −$500 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $3,260 +$1,043 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 01 $542 −$525 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 01 $990 −$455 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 01 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 31 $110 −$105 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 31 $1,037 −$1,000 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $4,146 −$3,000 -72%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $5,340 −$3,711 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 29 $2,091 −$2,033 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $3,312 +$6,639 +200%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $3,969 −$3,072 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 24 $69 −$65 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 24 $36 +$37 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 24 $303 −$264 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 24 $145 +$155 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 24 $26 +$119 +450%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 24 $1,249 −$1,200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET May 24 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 24 $722 +$553 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 24 $105 +$24 +23%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $6,900 −$2,874 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 24 $1,460 +$2,258 +155%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 49% +$8,661
world 30% −$5,245
crypto 20% −$2,576
politics 1% −$168
tech 0% −$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 64¢ $846 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 40¢ $1,502 4h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $865 7h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $4,101 7h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $5,124 7h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $522 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1,085 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $509 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 15h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $835 16h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 35h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $896 35h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $867 35h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $62 35h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $1,319 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $53 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $322 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $417 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $98 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 8¢ $910 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 9¢ $1,000 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $812 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $422 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $32 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $455 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $822 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 7¢ $300 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 11¢ $518 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-0.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +43.4% +29.8% 48% 48% +31.4%
≤30d 60 +17.8% +6.5% 45% 45% +5.7%
≤90d 121 +10.5% -0.0% 36% 36% -1.4%
all 121 +10.5% -0.0% 36% 36% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.0% 36% -1.4%
10% -9.6% 35% -10.9%
15% -18.3% 31% -19.5%
20% -26.3% 30% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $347.66 · official $347.66 (match) · 351 history records