Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:15:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe821…3128 sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$351 (-33%) realized −$251 · open −$100
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%3W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$364
other 10% −$112
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-48.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -42.6% -48.0% 25% 25% -44.5%
≤30d 12 -42.6% -48.0% 25% 25% -44.5%
≤90d 12 -42.6% -48.0% 25% 25% -44.5%
all 12 -42.6% -48.0% 25% 25% -44.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.0% 25% -44.5%
10% -53.0% 25% -49.9%
15% -57.6% 25% -54.7%
20% -61.7% 17% -59.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -65% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$57 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$251
Unrealized−$100
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses3 / 9
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage5d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Over 77¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $43 +$16 +37%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $72 −$19 -26%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $112 −$112 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $103 −$103 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $196 −$1 -0%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $41 +$37 +91%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $123 +$85 +69%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $10 −$8 -81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $102 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $58 1h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 36¢ $53 1h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $72 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $43 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $51 21h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $102 21h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $195 21h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 98¢ $196 21h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 37¢ $15 21h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 26¢ $103 22h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $41 27h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 27h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 81¢ $102 27h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $102 27h
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Over 99¢ $208 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 5¢ $2 4d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 66¢ $20 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 25¢ $10 4d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 55¢ $102 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.06 · official $0.06 (match) · 27 history records