Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:08:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe81f…e393 crypto 340 markets active 1h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$696 (-9%) realized −$696 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate89%304W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$26
14 days−$97
30 days−$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$265
sports 11% −$432
other 11% −$10
finance 6% +$7
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +0.2% -9.4% 99% 1% -11.2%
≤30d 180 -3.2% -12.4% 95% 1% -12.5%
≤90d 332 -9.2% -17.8% 89% 0% -27.9%
all 340 -4.5% -13.6% 89% 3% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 3% -17.8%
10% -21.9% 2% -25.7%
15% -29.4% 2% -32.9%
20% -36.3% 2% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$43 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized−$696
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses304 / 36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)340 / 340
History coverage230d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 340 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$2 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $24 +$1 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $49 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 16? Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? Jun 16 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? Jun 16 $29 +$1 +2%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET Jun 14 $39 +$1 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$2 +5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $16 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $16 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $16 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $16 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $16 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$2 +11%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $16 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $24 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $49 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $16 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $7 11h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $15 14h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? BUY Yes 98¢ $29 14h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $29 14h
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 97¢ $50 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $16 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $16 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 2d
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 2d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $39 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $16 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $16 2d
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.79 · official $127.00 (match) · 2050 history records