Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:30:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

E8 0xe81f…9255 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$62 (+26%) realized +$165 · open −$103

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip

Net edge+4%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown14%max

Avg bet$49per market

Trades / day2.7pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+4.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+15.4%	+4.4%	67%	67%	+44.0%
≤30d	3	+15.4%	+4.4%	67%	67%	+44.0%
≤90d	3	+15.4%	+4.4%	67%	67%	+44.0%
all	3	+15.4%	+4.4%	67%	67%	+44.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+4.4%	67%	+44.0%
10%	-5.6%	67%	+30.2%
15%	-14.7%	67%	+17.6%
20%	-23.1%	67%	+6.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 57% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +59% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +15% · $-wt +59% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$41 vs −$10 · ×4.11 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×8.21 per $1 lost it wins $8.21

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$12

Realized+$165

Unrealized−$103

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 5

History coverage3d

Avg bet$49

Trades / day2.7

Drawdown14%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	62¢	6¢	$115	$12	−$103 (-90%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$61	+$46	+76%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals	Jun 27	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$51	+$35	+70%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	40¢	$25	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	74¢	$91	2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	100¢	$107	3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	56¢	$61	6h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	43¢	$10	46h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AN	BUY	15¢	$5	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	100¢	$86	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	58¢	$51	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.97 · official $0.92 · 8 history records