Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:25:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E8 0xe81f…0c92 other 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 610d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$987 (-15%) realized −$916 · open −$71
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate29%8W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$211per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$229now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$126
14 days−$126
30 days−$206
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$276
crypto 11% −$141
sports 11% −$579
world 9% −$600
politics 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-45.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 4 -69.7% -72.6% 25% 25% -74.2%
all 28 -40.0% -45.8% 29% 18% -23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.8% 18% -23.9%
10% -50.9% 11% -31.2%
15% -55.7% 11% -37.8%
20% -60.0% 11% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -72% too few recent
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -85% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$198 vs −$129 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

610d coverage
Net worth$229
Realized−$916
Unrealized−$71
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses8 / 20
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)28 / 31
History coverage610d
Avg bet$211
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $100 $121 +$21 (+21%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $84 −$16 (-16%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 23¢ $100 $24 −$76 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $128 −$126 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $82 −$80 -98%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 28 $121 −$120 -100%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 28 $100 +$21 +21%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-30? Dec 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Split Fiction win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards? Nov 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Hades II win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards? Nov 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-05? Nov 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Nov 01 $300 −$300 -100%
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Nov 01 $2,100 −$201 -10%
Celtics vs. 76ers Oct 31 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza in May? Oct 31 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Oct 31 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 31 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-10-22? Oct 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-10-21? Oct 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-09-27? Sep 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-09-20? Sep 21 $400 +$711 +178%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-18? Sep 18 $250 +$444 +178%
Will Chelsea beat PSG? Jul 13 $100 +$400 +400%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-21? May 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-04-08? Apr 08 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 04 $500 +$1 +0%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-01-26? Jan 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Rangers beat Manchester United? Jan 26 $300 +$3 +1%
Will Arsenal beat Dinamo Zagreb? Jan 23 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Real Madrid beat RB Salzburg? Jan 23 $100 $0 +0%
Will Trump launch a coin before the election? Jan 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $41 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $61 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $26 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 7d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 7d
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Jannik Sinner $10 21d
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Jannik Sinner 11¢ $21 21d
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Jannik Sinner 27¢ $51 21d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 82¢ $121 51d
Thunder vs. Suns BUY Thunder 82¢ $100 52d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-30? BUY No 31¢ $100 170d
Will Split Fiction win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards? BUY Yes $100 213d
Will Split Fiction win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards? BUY Yes $50 213d
Will Hades II win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards? BUY Yes $200 213d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-05? BUY Yes 19¢ $50 225d
Celtics vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 49¢ $300 230d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes $100 230d
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? BUY Yes 21¢ $100 231d
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? SELL No 72¢ $1,899 231d
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? BUY No 76¢ $2,000 232d
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? BUY No $300 233d
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-10-22? BUY Yes 39¢ $100 239d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-10-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $100 240d
Will Manchester United win on 2025-09-27? BUY Yes 13¢ $100 264d
Will Manchester United win on 2025-09-20? BUY Yes 36¢ $400 271d
Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $694 273d
Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-18? BUY Yes 36¢ $250 273d
Will Chelsea beat PSG? SELL Yes 100¢ $500 340d
Will Chelsea beat PSG? BUY Yes 20¢ $100 340d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $229.18 · official $229.18 (match) · 64 history records