Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T14:21:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E8 0xe81e…3640 crypto 714 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$13,212 (-8%) realized −$13,431 · open +$219
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate48%343W / 368L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$640est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$906now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$375
7 days−$1,364
14 days−$626
30 days−$1,726
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% −$3,340
other 40% −$8,367
crypto 18% −$1,422
world 1% −$592
culture 1% +$331
politics 0% −$204
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -22.9% -30.3% 40% 40% -32.2%
≤30d 68 -18.9% -26.7% 40% 35% -16.2%
≤90d 190 -7.6% -16.4% 45% 42% -17.8%
all 711 -8.0% -16.8% 48% 45% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 45% -17.2%
10% -24.7% 42% -25.1%
15% -32.0% 37% -32.3%
20% -38.7% 29% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$134 vs −$162 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$906
Realized−$13,431
Unrealized+$219
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses343 / 368
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$640
Open positions3
Markets (closed)711 / 714
History coverage154d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 711 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 23¢ $423 $426 +$3 (+1%)
Wimbledon WTA: Ann Li vs Zeynep Sonmez Zeynep Sonmez 53¢ 100¢ $164 $311 +$147 (+89%)
Wimbledon WTA: Yulia Putintseva vs Tatjana Maria Tatjana Maria 59¢ 100¢ $100 $169 +$69 (+69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 300 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 29 $1,014 +$375 +37%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $150 −$148 -98%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $224 −$74 -33%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $116 +$108 +93%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $302 −$298 -98%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $202 +$101 +50%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $203 −$200 -98%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $203 −$200 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro Jun 24 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 24 $1,018 −$1,000 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart Jun 23 $301 +$651 +216%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova Jun 23 $530 −$521 -98%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $505 +$242 +48%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $222 +$101 +46%
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens Jun 22 $305 −$300 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $277 +$694 +251%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $502 +$60 +12%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $505 +$288 +57%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $103 +$563 +549%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Peyton Stearns vs Kimberly Birre Jun 21 $205 −$200 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $436 +$318 +73%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $143 −$140 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $610 −$472 -78%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $792 +$312 +39%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $482 +$311 +64%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 19 $315 −$138 -44%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 19 $408 −$353 -87%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $46 −$45 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Eala vs Rybakina Jun 18 $102 −$89 -87%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston Jun 18 $143 +$41 +29%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $101 +$37 +36%
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 17 $200 −$196 -98%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $163 −$160 -98%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $336 −$331 -98%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $108 −$107 -99%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $98 +$3 +3%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $102 −$94 -92%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 11 $201 −$196 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $399 −$394 -99%
HSBC Championships: Maria Sakkari vs Tatjana Maria Jun 09 $871 −$442 -51%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Maddison Inglis Jun 09 $1,000 −$136 -14%
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler Jun 08 $114 −$112 -98%
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 08 $102 +$7 +7%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 08 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $281 +$27 +10%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $200 +$83 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon WTA: Yulia Putintseva vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 59¢ $101 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Ann Li vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 53¢ $167 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $433 2h
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska SELL Maja Chwalinska 74¢ $1,222 2h
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska SELL Maja Chwalinska 86¢ $166 2h
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Maja Chwalinska 54¢ $1,014 14h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $150 3d
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 SELL Over 38¢ $150 3d
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $224 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $224 4d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $302 4d
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $303 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $116 4d
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $203 4d
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $202 4d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $203 4d
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro BUY Iga Swiatek 42¢ $203 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $1,018 5d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart BUY Zeynep Sonmez 31¢ $301 6d
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 28¢ $204 6d
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 54¢ $21 6d
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 54¢ $304 6d
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens BUY Alexandra Eala 31¢ $102 6d
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $505 6d
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens BUY Alexandra Eala 45¢ $203 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $222 7d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $72 7d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $270 7d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $205 7d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $905.97 · official $905.97 (match) · 1395 history records