Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:28:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E8
0xe81d…16bf
sports · 149 markets active 0h ago
5.0score
−$16,652 -27%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$16,418 · open −$234
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$592
Realized−$16,418
Unrealized−$234
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses82 / 61
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions6
Markets (closed)143 / 149
History coverage310d
Avg bet$417
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 6 History 143 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days+$253
14 days+$515
30 days−$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 17¢ $200 $218 +$18 (+9%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 46¢ 18¢ $400 $161 −$239 (-60%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $66 $60 −$5 (-8%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 31¢ 22¢ $35 $26 −$9 (-27%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $25 $26 +$0 (+2%)
Will The MongolZ win FISSURE Playground 2? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $130 $0 −$130 (-100%)
US government shutdown by October 1? No 24¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Will Trump announce a national housing emergency in 2025? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Will Vitality win the BLAST Open London 2025 tournament? Yes 51¢ 0¢ $985 $0 −$985 (-100%)
Will the US loose jobs in September? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
FISSURE Playground 2: The MongolZ vs. 3DMAX The MongolZ 78¢ 0¢ $722 $0 −$722 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs BetBoom Team 47¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Spurs Spurs 53¢ 0¢ $265 $0 −$265 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs R2 Esports Club (BO3) - CCT South America Series #1 Group Stage R2 Esports Club 72¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
FISSURE Playground 2: FURIA vs. Liquid Liquid 59¢ 0¢ $1,007 $0 −$1,007 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs 3DMAX - Map 2 Winner FaZe 61¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Will Kai Cenat hit 1m Twitch subscribers during MAFIATHON 3? No 21¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Will Russia capture Siversk by December 31? No 60¢ 0¢ $2,000 $0 −$2,000 (-100%)
Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 31? No 23¢ 0¢ $507 $0 −$507 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B TheMongolz 69¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31? No 19¢ 0¢ $2,798 $0 −$2,798 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 68¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$21 +105%
United States vs. Paraguay: Neither team to score first? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $100 +$15 +14%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $102 +$103 +101%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $101 +$20 +20%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Neither team to score first? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +42%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $111 +$46 +42%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1,605 +$193 +12%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $301 +$36 +12%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $203 +$262 +129%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 25 $204 −$200 -98%
Will MOUZ win CS Asia Championships 2026? May 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION (BO3) - CS Asia Championships May 22 $50 +$15 +29%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 22 $100 +$18 +18%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships G May 22 $201 +$39 +20%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - IEM Atlanta Playo May 20 $101 +$23 +23%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 20 $202 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 18 $101 +$32 +31%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 18 $101 +$63 +62%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 17 $265 −$265 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $101 +$63 +62%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $100 +$13 +13%
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs R2 Esports Club (BO3) - CCT South Amer May 05 $101 −$100 -99%
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? Apr 27 $156 +$44 +28%
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31? Apr 27 $274 +$177 +65%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31? Apr 27 $1,000 +$2,188 +219%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Legacy (BO3) Oct 29 $114 −$114 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) Oct 29 $36 −$36 -100%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs Gentle Mates (BO3) Oct 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Legacy (BO3) Oct 28 $89 +$73 +82%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs BetBoom Team (BO3) Oct 28 $57 +$32 +56%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31? Oct 28 $2,798 −$2,798 -100%
Meteora FDV above $1B one day after launch? Oct 27 $4 +$51 +1329%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by November 30? Oct 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Legacy (BO5) Oct 19 $269 −$270 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3) Oct 18 $138 +$162 +117%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Legacy (BO3) Oct 18 $187 +$164 +88%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FUT Esports (BO3) Oct 17 $168 +$132 +79%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs 3DMAX (BO3) Oct 17 $300 +$198 +66%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Liquid (BO3) Oct 16 $56 +$44 +79%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs FaZe (BO3) Oct 16 $60 +$140 +233%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs B8 (BO3) Oct 15 $246 +$54 +22%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Vitality (BO5) Oct 12 $55 +$4 +8%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FaZe (BO3) Oct 09 $128 −$128 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs 3DMAX (BO3) Oct 09 $99 +$201 +203%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 36% −$9,563
sports 27% −$2,545
other 18% −$582
crypto 15% −$3,575
politics 3% −$270
tech 0% +$12
culture 0% −$130
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 22¢ $5 4m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 33¢ $31 1h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 17h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $68 18h
United States vs. Paraguay: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 20h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 83¢ $101 36h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 87¢ $100 36h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 91¢ $100 36h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $101 36h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 49¢ $102 37h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 43h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 75¢ $101 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 2d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Legacy 87¢ $502 5d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Legacy 87¢ $100 5d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Legacy 90¢ $1,003 5d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY 9z 89¢ $301 5d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 54¢ $203 13d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 40¢ $204 13d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $203 14d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 38¢ $204 19d
Will MOUZ win CS Asia Championships 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 21d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION (BO3) - CS Asia Championships BUY TheMongolz 77¢ $50 22d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A BUY MOUZ 85¢ $100 22d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships G BUY Team Falcons 85¢ $100 22d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships G BUY Team Falcons 81¢ $101 22d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B BUY TheMongolz 69¢ $202 24d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 53¢ $93 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -4.4% -13.5% 67% 67% -0.9%
≤30d 24 -10.1% -18.6% 62% 62% -11.8%
≤90d 31 -1.8% -11.1% 65% 65% +22.3%
all 143 -0.1% -9.6% 57% 47% -33.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 47% -33.6%
10% -18.3% 34% -39.9%
15% -26.2% 24% -45.7%
20% -33.4% 20% -51.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $591.80 · official $592.23 (match) · 552 history records