Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:00:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe81d…2270 other 99 markets active 15h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$23 (-3%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate48%48W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% −$21
crypto 6% −$5
finance 2% −$1
world 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -2.7% -12.0% 56% 31% -16.1%
≤30d 22 -15.1% -23.2% 55% 23% -16.2%
≤90d 55 -11.4% -19.9% 49% 29% -12.5%
all 99 -6.2% -15.1% 48% 24% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 24% -12.7%
10% -23.3% 15% -21.1%
15% -30.7% 8% -28.7%
20% -37.5% 4% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses48 / 51
Open positions0
Markets (closed)99 / 99
History coverage106d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 99 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $5 $0 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$1 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $4 +$2 +46%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +34%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$2 -44%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $4 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $3 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 08 $7 $0 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Mar 28 $6 +$1 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Mar 28 $69 −$7 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Mar 28 $1 +$1 +77%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 27 $73 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Mar 27 $2 −$2 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Mar 27 $3 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Mar 27 $1 $0 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 27 $14 −$1 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 27 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Mar 27 $2 $0 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Mar 27 $1 $0 +32%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 26 $2 −$2 -75%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 26 $3 −$2 -77%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 26 $3 −$1 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 25 $4 $0 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 25 $4 −$1 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 25 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 24 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Mar 24 $2 +$1 +52%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 24 $1 −$1 -81%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 24 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 24 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 24 $2 −$2 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 23 $61 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Mar 21 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Mar 21 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 21? Mar 21 $1 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 22? Mar 21 $1 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 15h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $4 15h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 34h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $4 5d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $4 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 5d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $3 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $2 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $2 5d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $2 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 432 history records