Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:13:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E8 0xe81b…f35a other 340 markets active 0h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$196 (+0%) realized +$202 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate39%129W / 205L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$283est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$984
7 days−$964
14 days−$199
30 days−$306
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$1,027
sports 40% +$526
world 3% +$69
crypto 1% −$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 119 +0.3% -9.3% 41% 34% -10.8%
≤30d 295 -6.9% -15.7% 40% 32% -7.2%
≤90d 295 -6.9% -15.7% 40% 32% -7.2%
all 334 -10.4% -18.9% 39% 31% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 31% -7.6%
10% -26.7% 24% -16.4%
15% -33.8% 19% -24.5%
20% -40.3% 13% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -29% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$41 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$202
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses129 / 205
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$283
Open positions3
Markets (closed)334 / 340
History coverage152d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 334 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $16 $11 −$4 (-28%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 112 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$4 -9%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$2 +2%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 $0 -0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $103 −$1 -1%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $12 +$5 +46%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $351 −$350 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $455 −$67 -15%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $392 +$41 +10%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $444 +$74 +17%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $303 +$11 +4%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $36 −$7 -19%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $708 −$256 -36%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $10 +$30 +290%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $388 +$107 +28%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$22 +216%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $95 −$4 -4%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $17 +$7 +42%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $121 −$120 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $305 −$202 -66%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $349 −$242 -69%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $403 +$145 +36%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $705 +$68 +10%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $313 −$3 -1%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $61 −$27 -44%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $304 −$123 -41%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $117 +$46 +40%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,013 −$376 -37%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $51 −$5 -11%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $21 −$14 -70%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $907 −$519 -57%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $252 +$13 +5%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 −$24 -24%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $203 +$195 +96%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $71 +$96 +134%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1,305 +$44 +3%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $602 −$311 -52%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$2 -18%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +12%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $15 +$2 +12%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $20 +$10 +49%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $100 +$29 +29%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $341 +$159 +47%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $502 +$66 +13%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $591 +$108 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 48¢ $46 12m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 82¢ $45 25m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 27m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 84¢ $9 27m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 75¢ $49 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $101 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $27 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 57¢ $74 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $101 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 93¢ $102 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 93¢ $103 3h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $17 3h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 93¢ $50 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 77¢ $49 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 78¢ $50 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 93¢ $301 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 78¢ $298 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 78¢ $302 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 23¢ $40 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 97¢ $334 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $102 10h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 83¢ $100 10h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 84¢ $392 16h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $334 26h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $302 26h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes 67¢ $314 26h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 36¢ $29 26h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 64¢ $303 26h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 41¢ $20 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.75 · official $24.75 (match) · 1119 history records