Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T07:59:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E8
0xe81b…5db1
sports · 26 markets active 2h ago
7.5score
+$282 +43%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$282 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Chart Positions 0 History 24 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$131
7 days+$141
14 days+$245
30 days+$282
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Over 51¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 54¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Up 65¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Spurs 47¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 218.5 Under $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Manchester City FC leading at halftime? Yes 45¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner TheMongolz 12¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FUT Esports 28¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$16 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $296 +$123 +42%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $20 +$14 +70%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $17 −$17 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) Jun 11 $11 +$5 +46%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 10 $6 −$6 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $5 +$4 +86%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $5 +$10 +197%
Spread: Thunder (-2.5) May 31 $4 +$4 +105%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $10 +$13 +129%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $101 +$71 +70%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $15 −$8 -52%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $74 +$24 +32%
Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime? May 30 $1 $0 -43%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $41 +$30 +73%
Manchester City FC leading at halftime? May 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 16 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 16 $5 +$1 +16%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 218.5 May 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 53% +$167
sports 45% +$117
crypto 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 6h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) AND Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 BUY $1 6h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY 54¢ $5 6h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $296 14h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FUT Esports 28¢ $3 18h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 58¢ $20 19h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 54¢ $17 21h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 12¢ $1 21h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $5 38h
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) BUY Spurs 68¢ $11 38h
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 BUY Over 51¢ $6 38h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 53¢ $5 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 33¢ $5 6d
Spread: Thunder (-2.5) BUY Spurs 48¢ $4 12d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $10 12d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 30¢ $7 12d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $98 12d
Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime? SELL Yes $1 12d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 75¢ $74 12d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $15 12d
Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime? BUY Yes $1 12d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 12d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 46¢ $10 20d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $70 26d
Manchester City FC leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 26d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 57¢ $41 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +9.0% -1.4% 55% 55% +24.0%
≤30d 24 +11.8% +1.1% 58% 58% +29.5%
≤90d 24 +11.8% +1.1% 58% 58% +29.5%
all 24 +11.8% +1.1% 58% 58% +29.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.1% 58% +29.5%
10% -8.5% 54% +17.1%
15% -17.4% 50% +5.8%
20% -25.5% 38% -4.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records