Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:43:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe81b…c0f1 other 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 251d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%25W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$5
world 23% +$1
tech 17% +$3
culture 12% −$15
politics 7% +$1
crypto 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.8% -7.0% 100% 0% -7.3%
≤30d 4 +2.2% -7.5% 100% 0% -8.2%
≤90d 7 +1.4% -8.3% 100% 0% -8.6%
all 26 -1.6% -11.0% 96% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -19.5% 0% -18.5%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$15 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

251d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses25 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage251d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $57 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $45 +$2 +5%
Will MrBeast hit 497 million subscribers by June 30? Jun 08 $169 +$1 +1%
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $22 +$1 +3%
Will Baidu have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026? May 04 $51 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 02 $69 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Mar 21 $46 $0 +0%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026? Mar 08 $40 $0 +1%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 7, 2026 (ET)? Feb 14 $200 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $38 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Jan 03 $40 $0 +0%
Zelenskyy wears a suit and tie during next Trump meeting? Dec 29 $57 $0 +0%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 16? Dec 19 $37 $0 +0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? Dec 06 $34 +$3 +9%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by June 30? Nov 27 $33 $0 +1%
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? Nov 13 $27 +$1 +3%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025 Oct 18 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? Oct 15 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Oct 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 10 $23 $0 +1%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 10 $25 $0 +0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 10 $27 $0 +0%
Will Zuriel Oduwole win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 10 $27 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 10 $22 −$15 -68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $57 1h
Will MrBeast hit 497 million subscribers by June 30? BUY Yes 99¢ $169 16d
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $22 24d
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $45 43d
Will Baidu have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $41 72d
Will Baidu have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 72d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 90d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $69 90d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $40 114d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 7, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 100¢ $200 129d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 157d
Zelenskyy wears a suit and tie during next Trump meeting? BUY No 100¢ $57 169d
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $40 182d
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 16? BUY No 100¢ $37 182d
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? BUY No 92¢ $34 199d
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? BUY No 97¢ $27 218d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $30 242d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025 BUY No 100¢ $22 243d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $21 246d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by June 30? BUY Yes 99¢ $33 249d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $30 249d
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? SELL No 32¢ $7 250d
Will Zuriel Oduwole win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $27 251d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $27 251d
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $23 251d
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $21 251d
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $22 251d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $25 251d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 54 history records