Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:49:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

E8 0xe819…7137 other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$114 (-14%) realized −$112 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip

Net edge-36%after slip

Net WR38%break-even

Win rate46%11W / 13L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$32per market

Trades / day6.6pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit28%portable

Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$19

7 days−$101

14 days−$101

30 days−$101

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +38%

net ROI/market (all)-33.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	24	-26.3%	-33.3%	46%	38%	-22.4%
≤30d	24	-26.3%	-33.3%	46%	38%	-22.4%
≤90d	24	-26.3%	-33.3%	46%	38%	-22.4%
all	24	-26.3%	-33.3%	46%	38%	-22.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-33.3%	38%	-22.4%
10%	-39.7%	33%	-29.8%
15%	-45.5%	33%	-36.6%
20%	-50.8%	17%	-42.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

18% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -26% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -55% → late +3% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$8 vs −$15 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.48 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage

Net worth$84

Realized−$112

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)46%

Wins / losses11 / 13

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)24 / 25

History coverage7d

Avg bet$32

Trades / day6.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 24 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	89¢	86¢	$87	$84	−$2 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$139	+$17	+12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$120	−$2	-2%
United States to score first vs. Australia?	Jun 19	$10	+$4	+39%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score	Jun 18	$50	+$3	+5%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$100	+$7	+7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$8	+$8	+93%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$25	−$18	-70%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Jun 17	$2	−$1	-46%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$8	+$5	+64%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$18	−$18	-99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$18	+$8	+46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$12	+$6	+48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$29	−$29	-99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$6	−$6	-98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	Jun 15	$20	+$16	+77%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$15	−$15	-98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 15	$20	+$10	+48%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$2	−$2	-100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$3	−$3	-100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$73	−$73	-99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$8	+$9	+114%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$87	48m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$87	49m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	79¢	$69	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	78¢	$69	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	78¢	$70	2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	97¢	$70	4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	98¢	$70	4h
United States to score first vs. Australia?	SELL Yes	100¢	$14	5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	79¢	$49	5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	80¢	$50	5h
United States to score first vs. Australia?	BUY Yes	71¢	$10	5h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score	SELL No	96¢	$53	24h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	91¢	$50	25h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	100¢	$107	25h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	93¢	$100	26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	100¢	$16	27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	51¢	$8	28h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	72¢	$20	32h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	73¢	$7	32h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	50¢	$5	32h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	15¢	$1	2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	SELL Yes	16¢	$1	2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	15¢	$1	2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$13	2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	60¢	$8	2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$18	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$18	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$18	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$2	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$10	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.33 · official $84.33 (match) · 54 history records