Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:26:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E8 0xe815…7b75 other 6 markets active 5d ago coverage 67d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+18%) realized +$20 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 67d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$10
sports 39% +$28
politics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-52.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 4 -58.3% -62.3% 25% 25% +23.9%
≤90d 5 -47.0% -52.1% 20% 20% +7.9%
all 5 -47.0% -52.1% 20% 20% +7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.1% 20% +7.9%
10% -56.7% 20% -2.4%
15% -60.8% 20% -11.9%
20% -64.7% 20% -20.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt +19% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$2 · ×11.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.81 per $1 lost it wins $2.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$20
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage67d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Enrique Riquelme win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-04? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $42 +$28 +67%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Apr 06 $43 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 5d
Will Enrique Riquelme win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 13d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 13d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $12 14d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 99¢ $70 18d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $42 19d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL No 51¢ $42 71d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY No 52¢ $43 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.94 · official $10.94 (match) · 24 history records