Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:45:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

E8 0xe814…f2bb crypto 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 347d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$39 (+6%) realized +$40 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip

Net edge-19%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate60%3W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$91per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit71%portable

Net worth$124now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$28

7 days−$28

14 days−$28

30 days−$28

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)-19.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-14.8%	-23.0%	50%	50%	-21.8%
≤30d	2	-14.8%	-23.0%	50%	50%	-21.8%
≤90d	2	-14.8%	-23.0%	50%	50%	-21.8%
all	5	-10.8%	-19.3%	60%	60%	-21.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-19.3%	60%	-21.0%
10%	-27.1%	40%	-28.6%
15%	-34.1%	40%	-35.5%
20%	-40.6%	40%	-41.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 50% · top 2 88% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -14% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -11% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$49 vs −$105 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.7 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

347d coverage

Net worth$124

Realized+$40

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses3 / 2

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)5 / 7

History coverage347d

Avg bet$91

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	Over	84¢	84¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners	Over	70¢	69¢	$25	$25	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Jun 20	$106	−$100	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Jun 20	$103	+$72	+70%
Will Elon register the America Party in July?	Sep 14	$100	+$57	+56%
New X CEO announced by July 31?	Jul 11	$110	−$110	-100%
Will Ethereum reach $2700 in July?	Jul 09	$90	+$17	+19%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	70¢	$25	1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	84¢	$100	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	BUY Up	21¢	$106	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	BUY Up	57¢	$103	2h
New X CEO announced by July 31?	BUY Yes	59¢	$110	344d
Will Ethereum reach $2700 in July?	SELL Yes	100¢	$107	346d
Will Ethereum reach $2700 in July?	BUY Yes	84¢	$90	346d
Will Elon register the America Party in July?	BUY No	64¢	$100	347d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.16 · official $124.17 (match) · 10 history records