Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:44:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E8 0xe814…ab37 crypto 2077 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 40d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$418 (-3%) realized −$429 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%996W / 668L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day60.8pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 40d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$4,915
other 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 344 -83.5% -85.1% 8% 8% -72.8%
≤30d 1253 +24.6% +12.7% 64% 64% +18.6%
≤90d 1664 +17.2% +6.1% 60% 60% +15.3%
all 1664 +17.2% +6.1% 60% 60% +15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.1% 60% +15.3%
10% ← realistic here -4.1% 60% +4.3%
15% -13.3% 60% -5.8%
20% -21.8% 60% -15.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$429
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses996 / 668
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1664 / 2077
History coverage40d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day60.8
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1664 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Up 0¢ 50¢ $0 $10 +$10 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Up 49¢ 86¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+74%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 27, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 4, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 25, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 27, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 29, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $82 −$82 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 4, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 4, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 25, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 5, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 29, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $43 −$43 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $20 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $80 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $84 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $82 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $42 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.68 · official $8.47 · 3500 history records