Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:50:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
E8 0xe811…ac72 sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$12 (+9%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$17
other 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +13.1% +2.3% 67% 56% +7.0%
≤30d 9 +13.1% +2.3% 67% 56% +7.0%
≤90d 9 +13.1% +2.3% 67% 56% +7.0%
all 9 +13.1% +2.3% 67% 56% +7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.3% 56% +7.0%
10% -7.5% 56% -3.3%
15% -16.4% 33% -12.6%
20% -24.6% 22% -21.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.6 per $1 lost it wins $2.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Over 67¢ 67¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? Yes 78¢ 77¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$6 +29%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$5 +54%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +24%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 $0 -1%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$7 +145%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -78%
France to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 16 $19 +$8 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $20 50m
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? BUY Yes 78¢ $20 51m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $26 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $20 3h
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $16 4h
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 5h
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 5h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $10 5h
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 6h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 45¢ $10 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $12 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 BUY Over 98¢ $10 7h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 8h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 8h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $5 8h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $10 17h
France to score first vs. Senegal? BUY Yes 70¢ $19 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.74 · official $39.62 (match) · 21 history records