Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:47:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E8 0xe80f…3354 sports 568 markets active 2h ago coverage 151d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 151d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$11,500 (+5%) realized +$16,350 · open −$4,850
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate73%344W / 125L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$437per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Fees−$345est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$19,020now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 151d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% +$9,339
world 19% −$7,202
crypto 19% +$533
sports 15% +$1,149
politics 8% −$4,801
finance 4% −$695
economics 2% +$86
tech 1% +$194
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +56.3% +41.4% 56% 38% -12.6%
≤30d 170 +17.8% +6.6% 59% 35% -10.4%
≤90d 269 +15.3% +4.3% 65% 37% +2.0%
all 469 +8.2% -2.1% 73% 32% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.1% 32% -8.2%
10% -11.4% 22% -17.0%
15% -20.0% 17% -25.0%
20% -27.8% 14% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$211 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$19,020
Realized+$16,350
Unrealized−$4,850
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses344 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$345
Open positions21
Markets (closed)469 / 568
History coverage151d ⚠
Avg bet$437
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 469 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 98¢ $5,000 $9,835 +$4,835 (+97%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $1,608 $1,975 +$367 (+23%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1,608 $1,365 −$243 (-15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $1,116 $1,255 +$139 (+12%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $840 $595 −$245 (-29%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $620 $568 −$52 (-8%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $600 $550 −$50 (-8%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $450 $452 +$2 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? No 50¢ 76¢ $250 $378 +$128 (+51%)
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 89¢ 74¢ $444 $372 −$71 (-16%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 60¢ 61¢ $300 $305 +$5 (+2%)
Tread FDV above $40M one day after launch Yes 60¢ 58¢ $300 $292 −$8 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $282 +$82 (+41%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $270 $282 +$12 (+5%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ $5,000 $165 −$4,835 (-97%)
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 75¢ 50¢ $150 $100 −$50 (-33%)
Tread FDV above $80M one day after launch Yes 24¢ 30¢ $69 $85 +$16 (+23%)
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) Bosnia and Herzegovina 15¢ 23¢ $38 $58 +$20 (+53%)
Tread FDV above $200M one day after launch Yes $35 $37 +$2 (+7%)
Tread FDV above $100M one day after launch Yes 20¢ 28¢ $22 $31 +$9 (+40%)
Tread FDV above $150M one day after launch Yes 11¢ $55 $30 −$25 (-45%)
Will Tread launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes $60 $5 −$54 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $325 +$175 +54%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $375 +$125 +33%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $203 +$51 +25%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 AND Will France win on 2026 Jun 20 $20 +$30 +148%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$21 +70%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$4 +35%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $48 +$86 +180%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $60 +$1 +2%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA Worl Jun 19 $58 +$6 +11%
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA World Jun 19 $225 +$2 +1%
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA World Jun 18 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $150 −$150 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$44 +855%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 +$30 +197%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 +$40 +400%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $162 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $460 −$460 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $92 +$45 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $49 +$4 +8%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 17 $194 +$73 +37%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 17 $36 −$35 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $153 −$150 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $133 −$130 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$10 +24%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 +$450 +900%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$50 +50%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $60 +$10 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +4%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Sc BUY 14¢ $100 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY $21 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY 11¢ $21 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 AND Will New Zealand vs. Egypt e BUY $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $30 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes $21 13h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $200 14h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U BUY $4 14h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $45 14h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $5 14h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 74¢ $253 14h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $203 15h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes $5 15h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes $5 15h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes $5 15h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY $23 15h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $300 15h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes $3 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $14 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 27h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? A BUY $100 27h
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) AND Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Spread: Neth BUY $37 27h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 61¢ $61 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 20¢ $5 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 AND Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 BUY $15 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes $4 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 AND Will United States vs. Australia e BUY $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19,019.55 · official $19,749.53 · 3500 history records