Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:27:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe80d…fe78 sports 242 markets active 2h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%18W / 224L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% −$4
other 22% −$2
politics 21% −$3
economics 8% −$1
crypto 7% −$3
culture 5% −$1
tech 5% −$1
world 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -2.4% -11.7% 0% 0% -11.7%
≤30d 3 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 4 -0.9% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.1%
all 242 -0.9% -10.4% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses18 / 224
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)242 / 242
History coverage169d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 242 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $26 −$1 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $36 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $37 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 15 $72 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 04 $250 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 04 $87 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 04 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Mar 04 $1 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 04 $72 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 04 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 04 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $71 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 04 $99 $0 -0%
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? Mar 04 $103 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Mar 04 $85 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 04 $31 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 04 $65 $0 -0%
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 04 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 04 $34 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 04 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 04 $111 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 04 $97 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March? Mar 04 $27 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 04 $95 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 04 $104 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 04 $176 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 04 $114 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $173 $0 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 04 $37 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 04 $80 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 04 $205 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 04 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 04 $186 $0 +0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 04 $36 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 04 $28 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 04 $143 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 04 $107 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 04 $74 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 04 $75 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 04 $178 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 04 $121 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 04 $32 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 04 $111 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 04 $82 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Mar 04 $40 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 04 $55 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 04 $118 $0 -0%
Will Hassan Rouhani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 04 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 04 $125 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $26 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $26 8h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 96¢ $36 12d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $36 12d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $37 24d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $37 24d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $35 32d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $35 33d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $29 104d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $29 104d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $25 104d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $25 104d
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 95¢ $38 104d
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 95¢ $38 104d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $1 104d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 97¢ $28 104d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $1 104d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 97¢ $29 104d
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? SELL No 91¢ $37 104d
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? BUY No 91¢ $37 104d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $26 104d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $26 104d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $26 104d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $26 104d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $29 104d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $29 104d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $28 104d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $29 104d
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? SELL No 92¢ $29 104d
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? BUY No 93¢ $29 104d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 897 history records