Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:53:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe80c…f3e6 sports 483 markets active 2h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,767 (+6%) realized +$5,026 · open −$1,259
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%184W / 295L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day15.2pace
Fees−$1,284est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$753now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$787
7 days+$3,154
14 days+$1,851
30 days+$685
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$2,420
other 4% −$117
world 0% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 +33.9% +21.1% 53% 51% +3.2%
≤30d 242 -9.5% -18.1% 37% 37% -7.5%
≤90d 479 -5.4% -14.5% 38% 38% -4.4%
all 479 -5.4% -14.5% 38% 38% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 38% -4.4%
10% -22.6% 38% -13.6%
15% -30.1% 37% -21.9%
20% -37.0% 35% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$191 vs −$107 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$753
Realized+$5,026
Unrealized−$1,259
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses184 / 295
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$1,284
Open positions3
Markets (closed)479 / 483
History coverage63d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day15.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 479 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Leviatán Esports 46¢ 96¢ $224 $466 +$241 (+108%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 31¢ 11¢ $806 $286 −$520 (-65%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner G2 27¢ 0¢ $982 $2 −$981 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 193 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $511 +$880 +172%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $260 −$254 -98%
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea Jun 18 $340 +$431 +127%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $219 +$377 +172%
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Amer Jun 18 $113 +$227 +200%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $113 +$106 +93%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $988 −$968 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $1,022 −$1,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $318 +$197 +62%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $834 +$660 +79%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $336 +$489 +146%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $343 +$320 +93%
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Jun 17 $344 −$339 -99%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $335 −$329 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 16 $347 −$339 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $231 −$226 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $115 −$113 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $115 −$114 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $554 −$548 -99%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage Jun 15 $304 +$250 +82%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $231 +$1,094 +473%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $554 −$545 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $1,119 +$1,437 +128%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $562 +$757 +135%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $340 +$286 +84%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $299 +$377 +126%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $53 −$52 -98%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 14 $129 +$223 +172%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $795 −$782 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $406 +$389 +96%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $304 +$231 +76%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $127 −$124 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $230 +$201 +88%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $193 −$190 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $557 −$550 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $230 +$520 +226%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $230 −$226 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,027 −$1,003 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $739 −$725 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $402 +$1,364 +340%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1,003 −$649 -65%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) Jun 13 $508 +$549 +108%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $346 −$340 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $572 −$560 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $237 +$7 +3%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $605 +$251 +41%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $360 +$482 +134%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $358 −$350 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $244 +$278 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 46¢ $228 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 31¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 31¢ $820 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London SELL Leviatán Esports 45¢ $366 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 27¢ $4 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 27¢ $1,000 3h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 46¢ $386 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $1,391 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 36¢ $1 11h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $260 19h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 36¢ $510 19h
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea SELL 9z Team 100¢ $771 19h
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 2 Winner SELL Nightblood Gaming 100¢ $595 19h
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea BUY 9z Team 43¢ $340 20h
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Amer SELL 100 Thieves 100¢ $340 20h
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 2 Winner BUY Nightblood Gaming 36¢ $219 20h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $219 20h
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Amer BUY 100 Thieves 33¢ $113 21h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $113 21h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 32¢ $4 24h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 32¢ $984 24h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $1,022 26h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $515 26h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $1,494 26h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 61¢ $318 27h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $507 38h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $327 43h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $336 43h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $343 44h
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular BUY BESTIA 54¢ $242 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $753.38 · official $753.38 (match) · 999 history records