Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:57:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E8 0xe80a…cdcc world 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$258 (-10%) realized −$258 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate24%4W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% +$12
sports 31% −$313
other 21% +$44
politics 17% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-39.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 5 +3.0% -6.8% 40% 0% -6.3%
≤90d 17 -33.0% -39.4% 24% 6% -18.7%
all 17 -33.0% -39.4% 24% 6% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.4% 6% -18.7%
10% -45.2% 6% -26.5%
15% -50.5% 0% -33.6%
20% -55.3% 0% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$38 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$258
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses4 / 13
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage76d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 29 $112 $0 +0%
Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors? Jun 09 $456 +$44 +10%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 Jun 08 $465 $0 +0%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $441 +$26 +6%
Trump talks to Cuba leader Diaz-Canel by June 30? Jun 06 $443 −$1 -0%
Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-2.5) May 23 $59 −$59 -100%
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? May 23 $71 $0 +0%
Spread: Wuhan San Zhen FC (-1.5) May 20 $74 −$74 -100%
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027? May 20 $86 $0 +0%
Spread: SS Juve Stabia (-1.5) May 19 $61 −$61 -100%
Spread: Levante UD (-2.5) Apr 23 $60 −$58 -97%
Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 Apr 23 $37 −$4 -11%
Spread: Sporting CP (-1.5) Apr 15 $38 −$36 -97%
Spread: Botafogo FR (-1.5) Apr 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2026? Apr 15 $37 +$2 +5%
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? Apr 15 $44 +$15 +33%
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? Apr 14 $25 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $112 12m
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $112 1h
Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors? BUY No 91¢ $456 21d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL No 92¢ $23 21d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL No 92¢ $442 21d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 BUY No 92¢ $465 21d
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $441 23d
Trump talks to Cuba leader Diaz-Canel by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $442 23d
Trump talks to Cuba leader Diaz-Canel by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $443 23d
Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-2.5) BUY Bologna FC 1909 $29 37d
Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-2.5) BUY Bologna FC 1909 $30 37d
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? SELL Yes $29 37d
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? SELL Yes $41 37d
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? BUY Yes $37 37d
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? BUY Yes $34 37d
Spread: Wuhan San Zhen FC (-1.5) BUY Wuhan San Zhen FC $35 40d
Spread: Wuhan San Zhen FC (-1.5) BUY Wuhan San Zhen FC $39 40d
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $53 40d
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $32 40d
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $43 40d
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $42 40d
Spread: SS Juve Stabia (-1.5) BUY SS Juve Stabia $29 41d
Spread: SS Juve Stabia (-1.5) BUY SS Juve Stabia $31 41d
Spread: Levante UD (-2.5) BUY Levante UD $60 67d
Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 SELL Yes $16 67d
Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 SELL Yes $17 67d
Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 BUY Yes $18 67d
Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 BUY Yes $19 67d
Spread: Sporting CP (-1.5) BUY Sporting CP $2 75d
Spread: Botafogo FR (-1.5) BUY Botafogo FR $25 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 48 history records