Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:51:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E8 0xe809…a6a5 other 37 markets active 5h ago coverage 189d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$190 (+9%) realized +$126 · open +$64
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate57%20W / 15L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$528now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$30
14 days+$16
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% +$166
sports 2% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -23.7% -30.9% 50% 40% +1.0%
≤30d 11 -25.5% -32.6% 45% 36% -4.4%
≤90d 11 -25.5% -32.6% 45% 36% -4.4%
all 35 -11.5% -19.9% 57% 51% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 51% -2.0%
10% -27.6% 29% -11.4%
15% -34.6% 17% -20.0%
20% -41.0% 11% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$10 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.86 per $1 lost it wins $1.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

189d coverage
Net worth$528
Realized+$126
Unrealized+$64
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses20 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)35 / 37
History coverage189d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 86¢ $284 $339 +$55 (+19%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 63¢ $180 $189 +$9 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $91 +$3 +3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $60 +$33 +55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $37 −$28 -74%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $24 +$17 +70%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 +$9 +59%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 +$8 +50%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 −$14 -44%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week Mar 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 Mar 22 $230 −$48 -21%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1? Feb 22 $202 +$33 +16%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 Feb 08 $179 +$24 +13%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $15 +$4 +30%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-28? Feb 07 $20 +$4 +20%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-01-24? Jan 24 $20 +$6 +28%
Will MrBeast's celebrity challenge video get between 34 and 35 million Jan 08 $200 +$71 +35%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $147 +$16 +11%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $36 +$9 +25%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $68 +$4 +6%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-01-01? Jan 02 $18 +$2 +12%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-01-01? Jan 01 $60 +$11 +18%
Will Dustin Henderson die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Dec 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Dec 31 $35 +$9 +27%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2025-12-30? Dec 31 $15 +$3 +18%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-30? Dec 30 $5 −$4 -73%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 28 $13 +$2 +12%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Dec 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor Dec 20 $3 +$14 +428%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $94 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $91 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $93 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $50 29h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 35h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $37 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $41 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $24 4d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 5d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $15 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 6d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $15 6d
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $286 9d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 10¢ $17 9d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 10d
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $182 20d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 SELL No 71¢ $182 93d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 BUY No 89¢ $230 93d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 105d
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1? SELL Yes 100¢ $235 121d
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1? BUY Yes 86¢ $202 122d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 SELL No 100¢ $202 135d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 BUY No 90¢ $19 136d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-07? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 136d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 BUY No 88¢ $159 136d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-07? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 136d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $528.03 · official $526.06 (match) · 69 history records