Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:13:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
E8 0xe809…039b world 246 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 89d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,649 (+5%) realized +$6,361 · open −$712
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate50%115W / 115L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$436per market
Trades / day36.0pace
Fees−$120est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1,769now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$275
7 days−$175
14 days−$614
30 days−$721
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% +$9,151
politics 8% +$85
other 7% −$1,667
sports 6% −$1,304
crypto 3% −$552
finance 2% −$118
tech 0% +$17
economics 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -5.6% -14.6% 40% 40% -17.9%
≤30d 74 -8.0% -16.7% 50% 31% -11.2%
≤90d 230 +15.1% +4.2% 50% 35% -4.0%
all 230 +15.1% +4.2% 50% 35% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.2% 35% -4.0%
10% ← realistic here -5.8% 27% -13.2%
15% -14.9% 23% -21.6%
20% -23.2% 19% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +22% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$134 vs −$81 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$1,769
Realized+$6,361
Unrealized−$712
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses115 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$120
Open positions8
Markets (closed)230 / 246
History coverage90d ⚠
Avg bet$436
Trades / day36.0
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 230 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $21 −$13 -62%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 23 $198 +$46 +23%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $44 −$26 -59%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $74 +$106 +143%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 23 $39 +$35 +89%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $88 +$42 +48%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $64 +$33 +51%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $47 +$53 +112%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 21 $810 −$36 -4%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $47 −$46 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $200 −$153 -77%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 20 $27 −$6 -21%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $20 −$6 -28%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $149 −$149 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $55 −$54 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $61 +$29 +48%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $31 +$43 +140%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $61 +$36 +60%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $63 −$54 -86%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $26 +$59 +230%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $101 +$49 +48%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $55 −$41 -75%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $55 +$45 +82%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $410 −$410 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 13 $1,274 −$62 -5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $149 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $122 +$69 +57%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $50 −$12 -23%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 06 $1,552 −$60 -4%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Jun 05 $94 −$94 -100%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven Jun 05 $71 +$119 +167%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Jun 05 $75 −$75 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? Jun 05 $2,316 +$206 +9%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $518 −$516 -100%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $630 −$353 -56%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $86 −$85 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $143 −$132 -92%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 04 $357 −$54 -15%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Jun 04 $342 +$8 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $1,672 +$31 +2%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $289 −$93 -32%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $1,174 +$276 +24%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $786 +$93 +12%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $1,095 +$122 +11%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $559 +$41 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 02 $475 +$9 +2%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $633 +$236 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 56m
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $21 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $108 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $162 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 80¢ $122 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 80¢ $122 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 23¢ $18 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 54¢ $16 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 55¢ $6 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 55¢ $22 3h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 100¢ $180 5h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe SELL Nigma Galaxy 100¢ $73 5h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 35¢ $7 6h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 36¢ $4 6h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 46¢ $6 6h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 46¢ $12 6h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 46¢ $6 6h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 40¢ $9 6h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 40¢ $3 6h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 40¢ $3 6h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 40¢ $3 6h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 40¢ $22 6h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 100¢ $130 6h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Nigma Galaxy 49¢ $4 7h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Nigma Galaxy 53¢ $21 7h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Nigma Galaxy 54¢ $5 7h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Nigma Galaxy 52¢ $5 7h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Nigma Galaxy 52¢ $3 7h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 69¢ $21 8h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 67¢ $19 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,768.61 · official $1,768.61 (match) · 3500 history records