Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:59:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe809…33d2 world 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$21 (+2%) realized +$20 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate45%18W / 22L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% +$2
sports 22% +$1
politics 18% +$28
other 10% −$1
culture 6% $0
crypto 4% −$5
weather 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +3.9% -6.0% 100% 0% -6.0%
≤30d 11 -0.3% -9.8% 45% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 11 -0.3% -9.8% 45% 0% -9.5%
all 40 -3.5% -12.7% 45% 2% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 2% -7.6%
10% -21.0% 2% -16.5%
15% -28.7% 2% -24.6%
20% -35.7% 2% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.29 per $1 lost it wins $2.29
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses18 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage476d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 81¢ 84¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $31 +$1 +4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $34 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $34 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $65 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $31 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $31 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $31 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 28 $13 −$1 -5%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $32 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trần Cẩm Tú be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 18 $64 $0 -0%
Will Tran Luu Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Mar 17 $64 $0 +0%
Spread: Grizzlies (-12.5) Mar 16 $65 $0 -0%
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Points O/U 21.5 Mar 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Benicio Del Toro win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Aw Mar 15 $65 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Dec 11 $1 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110K and $112K on June 17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +2%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 01 $37 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 23? May 24 $2 $0 +2%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 19 $2 $0 +4%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 30 $35 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 57°F or higher on March 24? Mar 23 $35 $0 -1%
Will anyone audibly fart during Digital Asset Summit? Mar 23 $34 +$1 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 20 $35 $0 +0%
Will another show be the top global Netflix show this week? Mar 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 44°F or below on March 18? Mar 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 15? Mar 17 $38 $0 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 13 $36 +$1 +3%
Duterte released from custody by Friday? Mar 12 $37 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 7? Mar 11 $36 +$1 +3%
Will Trump reduce tariffs on Mexico or Canada today? Mar 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Michael Saylor attend the March 7 Crypto Summit? Mar 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump say 'China' 5+ times during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 06 $13 +$33 +245%
Will Trump say 'Zelenskyy' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump say 'mandate' 5+ times times during the 2025 State of the U Mar 04 $13 $0 -1%
Heat vs. Cavaliers Mar 04 $6 $0 +0%
Stonehill vs. Fairleigh Dickinson Mar 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump say 'Greenland' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 04 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $32 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $32 7h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $31 9h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $34 19d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $34 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $34 20d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $34 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $34 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $34 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $34 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $34 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $24 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $7 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $31 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $31 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $31 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $7 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $24 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $7 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $24 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $19 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $12 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $31 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 35¢ $12 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 37¢ $9 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $9 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $23 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $32 26d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.76 · official $31.98 (match) · 114 history records