Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:31:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E8
0xe807…4d35
other · 556 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$12,114 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$12,697 · open +$26
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$7,223
Realized+$12,697
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses366 / 147
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions43
Markets (closed)513 / 556
Avg bet$776
Trades / day72.9
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit44%
Chart Positions 43 History 513 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,351
7 days+$1,925
14 days−$538
30 days+$11,484
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $2,008 $2,092 +$84 (+4%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $1,170 $1,173 +$3 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 88¢ 85¢ $1,076 $1,039 −$37 (-3%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? No 98¢ 97¢ $532 $528 −$4 (-1%)
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 150 (High)? Yes 75¢ 94¢ $286 $357 +$72 (+25%)
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $334 $335 +$1 (+0%)
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 9-15? Yes 90¢ 62¢ $268 $185 −$84 (-31%)
Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026? Yes 93¢ 92¢ $178 $176 −$2 (-1%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? No 97¢ 94¢ $176 $171 −$5 (-3%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? No 99¢ 99¢ $157 $156 −$0 (-0%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? No 93¢ 92¢ $158 $156 −$3 (-2%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? No 94¢ 91¢ $103 $99 −$4 (-4%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? No 96¢ 98¢ $86 $89 +$2 (+2%)
Will Donald Trump visit France in 2026? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $85 $84 −$1 (-1%)
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $66 $68 +$2 (+3%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? No 98¢ 98¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gwynne Shotwell be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? Yes 99¢ 94¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-5%)
Will Bret Johnsen be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? Yes 95¢ 93¢ $47 $46 −$1 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? No 65¢ 74¢ $34 $39 +$5 (+14%)
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%? Yes 99¢ 96¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-3%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? No 61¢ 64¢ $21 $23 +$1 (+6%)
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Grimes be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 12 $977 −$93 -10%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $870 −$61 -7%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $7,519 +$1,795 +24%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $1,323 +$29 +2%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 11 $140 +$2 +2%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $627 +$4 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $939 −$38 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $99 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $4 +$16 +442%
Will Trump announce Richard Grenell as the next Director of National I Jun 11 $10 $0 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $4 −$1 -17%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $6 −$1 -23%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 11 $1,139 −$64 -6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 11 $34 −$3 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $390 −$229 -59%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 11 $593 +$3 +0%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 11 $527 −$21 -4%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 11 $7,098 −$36 -0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $1,192 −$60 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $1,196 +$114 +10%
Will Trump announce no pick for the next Director of National Intellig Jun 10 $8 +$1 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $29 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $98 +$2 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $533 +$5 +1%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 10 $25 $0 +2%
Will Lindsey Graham be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Caro Jun 10 $20 $0 +2%
Will Paul LePage be the Republican Nominee for ME-02? Jun 10 $50 $0 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $16 −$12 -78%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky Jun 10 $6 +$1 +18%
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (6/1-6/7) Jun 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $39 −$6 -15%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? Jun 09 $166 −$28 -17%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $23,500 $0 +0%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $496 +$4 +1%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $379 +$3 +1%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $1,537 +$8 +0%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $1,374 +$730 +53%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $10 $0 +5%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $371 +$8 +2%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $462 +$11 +2%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $19 +$1 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $380 +$17 +4%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $109 +$4 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $24 −$6 -23%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $764 −$251 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 31% +$14,095
world 26% −$31
politics 25% −$2,159
crypto 10% +$873
finance 4% +$54
sports 3% +$8
tech 1% −$134
economics 0% +$24
culture 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 98¢ $3 12m
Will Grimes be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? BUY No 98¢ $20 15m
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 98¢ $22 56m
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 98¢ $75 56m
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 98¢ $87 59m
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 98¢ $11 59m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 92¢ $9 1h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 98¢ $30 1h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 98¢ $30 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 1h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 99¢ $49 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 86¢ $155 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 86¢ $705 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 86¢ $2 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 86¢ $4 1h
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? BUY Yes 98¢ $8 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 86¢ $17 1h
Will Hasan Piker be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $2 1h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $9 1h
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? BUY Yes 32¢ $13 1h
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I BUY No 66¢ $20 1h
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I BUY No 64¢ $15 1h
Will Gwynne Shotwell be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac BUY Yes 99¢ $50 1h
Will Bret Johnsen be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' BUY Yes 95¢ $48 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? BUY No 99¢ $366 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? BUY No 99¢ $5 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? BUY No 99¢ $175 3h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? BUY No 99¢ $248 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)+6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 134 -0.9% -10.4% 74% 6% -7.8%
≤30d 433 +14.4% +3.5% 71% 11% -8.1%
≤90d 513 +17.8% +6.6% 71% 12% -7.9%
all 513 +17.8% +6.6% 71% 12% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover72.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.6% 12% -7.9%
10% -3.6% 8% -16.8%
15% ← realistic here -12.9% 5% -24.8%
20% -21.5% 5% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,223.44 · official $7,223.45 (match) · 3500 history records