Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:53:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E8 0xe803…b60e sports 494 markets active 2h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$144 (+3%) realized +$118 · open +$26
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%268W / 224L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day17.3pace
Fees−$74est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$78
7 days+$127
14 days+$73
30 days+$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$106
other 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 +4.7% -5.3% 59% 59% -2.8%
≤30d 492 +0.6% -9.0% 54% 54% -8.3%
≤90d 492 +0.6% -9.0% 54% 54% -8.3%
all 492 +0.6% -9.0% 54% 54% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 54% -8.3%
10% -17.7% 54% -17.1%
15% -25.7% 51% -25.1%
20% -33.0% 42% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$11 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized+$118
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses268 / 224
Est. fees paid−$74
Open positions2
Markets (closed)492 / 494
History coverage29d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day17.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 492 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs ShindeN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Season ShindeN 49¢ 100¢ $28 $57 +$29 (+104%)
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs REKONIX 71¢ 66¢ $33 $30 −$3 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 220 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Beşiktaş Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gr Jun 22 $34 +$37 +109%
Valorant: OXEN vs Leviatán Academy (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Re Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C Jun 22 $13 +$17 +134%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $22 −$22 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $32 +$13 +42%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 21 $22 +$32 +143%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qu Jun 21 $33 +$19 +57%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qua Jun 21 $16 −$16 -98%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As Jun 21 $32 +$17 +52%
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 20 $33 +$15 +46%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $33 +$15 +46%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $19 +$17 +90%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 −$29 -99%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo Jun 20 $33 +$25 +76%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 20 $28 −$28 -98%
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 20 $33 −$7 -23%
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 20 $33 −$33 -99%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South Jun 20 $29 −$28 -98%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epi Jun 19 $18 +$17 +93%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $32 +$12 +38%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $32 +$12 +38%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - European Pro League Playof Jun 19 $32 +$10 +32%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 19 $27 +$24 +90%
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A Jun 19 $32 +$17 +52%
Valorant: T1 Academy vs ARETE (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 19 $32 +$16 +50%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $32 −$32 -99%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-1.5) Jun 19 $23 +$20 +86%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 173.5 Jun 19 $18 +$18 +101%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $32 +$13 +42%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 18 $27 +$22 +79%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 18 $22 −$22 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $32 +$11 +34%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 18 $26 +$27 +101%
Map Handicap: HOTU (-1.5) vs GenOne (+1.5) Jun 18 $17 −$17 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $31 +$21 +67%
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Ursa (+1.5) Jun 18 $31 +$32 +101%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 18 $27 +$17 +62%
Valorant: DRX Academy vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 18 $31 −$31 -99%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) Jun 18 $22 +$26 +114%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $12 −$12 -98%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-9.5) Jun 18 $19 +$16 +86%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $21 −$21 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $32 −$31 -99%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 18 $19 +$17 +90%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 163.5 Jun 18 $21 +$23 +109%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-8.5) Jun 17 $14 −$13 -98%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 165.5 Jun 17 $19 −$19 -99%
Spread: New York Liberty (-9.5) Jun 17 $19 −$19 -99%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 Jun 17 $18 −$18 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $32 +$14 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY REKONIX 71¢ $33 1h
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs ShindeN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regula BUY ShindeN 49¢ $28 6h
Valorant: OXEN vs Leviatán Academy (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Re BUY OXEN 48¢ $20 10h
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Beşiktaş Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gr BUY NAVI Junior 47¢ $34 14h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY REKONIX 45¢ $22 21h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY Grind Back 42¢ $13 24h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qua BUY Team Bald 39¢ $16 42h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qu BUY OG 63¢ $33 42h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 70¢ $32 44h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 40¢ $22 44h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Grind Back 65¢ $32 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $30 2d
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Flame Team 68¢ $33 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $19 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 68¢ $33 2d
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY 1WIN 48¢ $28 2d
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 65¢ $33 2d
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo BUY FOKUS 56¢ $33 2d
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY LPH Gaming 69¢ $33 2d
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South BUY Yangon Galacticos 39¢ $29 3d
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epi BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 51¢ $18 3d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) BUY G2 52¢ $27 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 72¢ $32 3d
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - European Pro League Playof BUY Zero Tenacity 75¢ $32 3d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 62¢ $32 3d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 72¢ $32 3d
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A BUY eSuba 65¢ $32 3d
Valorant: T1 Academy vs ARETE (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY T1 Academy 66¢ $32 3d
Spread: Indiana Fever (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Dream 53¢ $23 4d
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 173.5 BUY Over 49¢ $18 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $159.28 · official $159.28 (match) · 764 history records